【明報專訊】STEPHEN ROACH, former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, caused quite a stir
last year when he declared that "Hong Kong is over". A year on, he has moderated his position, arguing that the escalating China-US tensions may, paradoxically, work to the city's advantage. He now hedges that "nothing is over till it's over".
This rhetorical volte-face amounts to an implicit recognition of Hong Kong's enduring strength: the support of the country and its global connectivity. One should take the long view when surveying the world. Perspective demands distance. Hong Kong's path forward hinges not on external pronouncements, but on its own commitment to diversity, openness, reform, and progress.
Roach's original commentary on "Hong Kong is over", published in the Financial Times in February 2024, was unequivocal. Yet since the start of this year, capital inflows have resumed, the Hang Seng Index has risen 16%, and Hong Kong has raised $77 billion in equity capital markets in just five months— the highest total since 2021. Contemporary Amperex Technology's listing is currently the world's largest IPO this year. Meanwhile, Moody's recently revised its outlook on Hong Kong's credit rating from negative to stable. In light of these developments, for Roach to leave his thesis unamended would be to appear increasingly out of step with reality.
His initial pessimism rested on three arguments: that Hong Kong was caught in the crossfire of China-US rivalry; that Beijing's national security legislation signalled tightening political control over Hong Kong; and that the city had closer integration with the mainland economy, which was under severe challenges. In a nutshell, Hong Kong had "picked the wrong side". His latest comments, by contrast, imply that the political atmosphere alone does not determine capital flows, and that the "China factor" may now play a constructive role in the new era for Hong Kong. Roach concedes that, amid heightened Sino-American friction, the city may benefit from its "unique position as China's most important window to international finance".
Roach's earlier diagnosis reflected a narrow, Western-centric perspective. If Hong Kong aligns more fully with national development goals while enhancing its own competitiveness, it still holds long-term potential. As Washington ramps up efforts to constrain China's rise, Hong Kong has increasingly found itself in the firing line. A string of US policy moves has sought to undermine the city's distinctiveness and international standing.
Last year, Roach expressed scepticism toward what he described as a more "China-centric version of one country, two systems". Now, at the very least, he appears to accept that "Chinese characteristics" may help rather than hinder Hong Kong's revival. A recent annual survey of Swedish firms operating in the city reflects this shift: more respondents regard the impact of political development and the national security law on the business climate as neutral rather than negative, and the overall business environment score has improved compared to last year. Nevertheless, they remain concerned about the space for free expression in Hong Kong.
The distinctiveness of Hong Kong extends beyond its legal system, common law heritage, and currency, it also lies in its pluralistic public sphere. It is incumbent on the SAR government to preserve these attributes while driving forward economic transformation to provide more momentum for the city's growth.
明報社評2025.06.03：風物長宜放眼量 香港復興須努力
摩根士丹利亞洲區前主席羅奇去年一句「香港玩完」，引起甚大迴響。一年過去，羅奇改口稱，中美關係緊張反而令香港得益，並以「一切尚未結束，直至真的完結」打圓場。
他的最新說法，實際就是承認「背靠國家、聯通世界」，正是香港重大優勢。風物長宜放眼量，香港最重要是做好自己，堅持多元開放，努力變革求進。
羅奇去年2月在《金融時報》發文，揚言「香港已玩完」。然而，今年以來，資金流入香港，恒指上漲16%，短短5個月，香港股市上市融資額已達到770億元，屬2021年以來最高，寧德時代更是目前為止本年全球最大IPO，評級機構穆迪近日更將本港信用評級展望從「負面」上調為「穩定」。羅奇若不修正其「香港玩完論」，只會顯得脫離現實。
先前的「香港玩完論」，建基於三個因素，包括香港身處中美競爭漩渦之中、北京以國安法律加強對香港局面的控制，以及香港與面臨嚴峻挑戰的內地經濟聯繫日益緊密。一言蔽之，就是香港「站錯邊」。羅奇的最新說法，說明了政治氛圍並非國際資金來不來香港的決定性因素。其次是承認「中國因素」對新時期香港具有正面性。羅奇指出，中美衝突加劇，香港反而可能從中受益，「因為它是中國通往國際金融的最重要窗口，地位獨特」。
羅奇當日提出「香港玩完論」，乃囿於「西方中心論」的狹隘視角。香港若能加快融入國家發展大局，提升自身競爭力，長遠仍大有可為。美國阻撓中國發展，香港成了打壓對象，華府近年不少舉措，都否定香港的獨特性及國際性。
羅奇去年談及新時期香港「更有中國特色的兩制」，也有明顯的保留和質疑。今回羅奇至少肯定了「中國特色」或有助香港復興。最近一項在港瑞典企業年度調查顯示，受訪瑞典企業認為本港政治發展及國安法律對營商環境影響，較多由「負面」轉為「中性」，營商環境評分亦較去年有改善。惟受訪外商仍關注香港言論自由空間。
香港的獨特性，不僅在於法治、普通法制度、又或有自己的貨幣，還見諸多元開放的社會氛圍，特區政府必須致力維護，同時亦要加緊推動本地經濟轉型，為發展注入更多動能。
■ Glossary 生字 /
paradoxically : in a way that seems strange, impossible or unlikely because it has two opposite features or contains two opposite ideas
volte-face : a complete change of opinion or plan
unequivocal : expressing your opinion or intention very clearly and strongly