【明報專訊】US PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP has levied hefty "reciprocal tariffs" on most countries. Even Japan, a close ally, has not been spared, facing a bigger-than-expected 24% tariff. Although the "reciprocal tariffs" were suspended for 90 days, currently the US is still imposing an additional 10% tariff on trade partners and an extra 25% duty on steel and cars. One can well imagine the subsequent impact on Japan's economy. Japan has become the first country to enter negotiations with the Trump administration regarding the tariff issue. In view of its own economic interests and political calculations, Japan will not easily give way, notwithstanding its security reliance on Washington.
Japan's economy depends on exports. Since 2023, the US has overtaken China and become the largest export destination of Japan, with cars accounting for one-third of Japanese goods exported to the US. During his meeting with Japan's Economic Revitalisation Minister Ryosei Akazawa on 17 April, Trump talked about his aim to eliminate the US's trade deficit with Japan. He criticised Japan for not purchasing American cars and agricultural products and complained that Tokyo had shouldered too little of the costs of their security alliance.
The US made various demands in the talks and brought up a list of agricultural goods under concern, including rice and meat. Claiming that Japanese safety standards are a part of the "non-tariff barriers" that have hampered US cars from making inroads into the Japanese market, the US also demanded Tokyo alter the relevant safety rules. The issue of the yen rate that had worried Tokyo earlier was not the focus.
As Japan has already removed tariffs on imported cars since 1978, the problem with US cars is their failure to fit the tastes of Japanese consumers. American cars are not sold well because of their oversized dimensions, energy inefficiency and relatively high price; it has nothing to do with trade barriers. Regarding the issue of agricultural products, Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party traditionally adopts a protectionist stance on rice to secure its stronghold. There is still a significant voice in the party that opposes sacrificing the agricultural market to gain exemptions from the car tariffs.
What worries the Japanese government more is that even if it concedes, it is uncertain whether Washington will truly withdraw the tariffs. Aside from the 24% "reciprocal tariff", the US imposed a 25% tariff on all steel and car products in the name of national security. In the first round of talks, Akazawa urged the US to review this type of tariff but Washington refused. He plans to make the same demand during the second round of negotiations.
Japan is scheduled to hold its House of Councillors election in July. Given the low popularity of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba at present, too many concessions to Washington in the talks will inevitably damage electoral prospects. Some conservative commentators in Japan argue that the country should reduce its dependency on the Chinese economy in exchange for Trump's mercy in relation to the tariff issue. However, as Japan is one of the biggest trade partners of China, downsizing its economic and trade relations with China will also deal a blow to Japan's economy, drawing backlash from the business sector.
Bloomberg earlier cited anonymous Tokyo official sources that Japan does not want to be drawn into any US campaigns seeking to increase trade pressure on China, and it will prioritise its own interests. Of course, Japan also has a trump card in its hands, namely US Treasury bonds. As the largest holder of US government bonds globally, whether Japan will play its card right to maximise its benefits in the future deserves attention.
明報社評2025.04.28：應對美國關稅風暴 日本走鋼線求平衡
美國總統特朗普對多國大幅加徵「對等關稅」，作為盟友的日本亦未能倖免，被徵收24％關稅，遠超估計。儘管「對等關稅」暫緩90日，但美國目前仍向貿易伙伴加徵10％關稅，並對鋼鐵及汽車額外加徵25％關稅，對日本經濟的衝擊可想而知。日本成為首個與特朗普政府就關稅問題正式展開談判的國家，日本安保雖依賴美國，但基於自身經濟利益及政治盤算，也不會輕易屈服。
日本經濟依賴出口，而美國自2023年來已超越中國，成為日本最大出口地。日本對美出口有三分之一是汽車。日本經濟再生相赤澤亮正4月17日跟特朗普會面，特朗普表示要將日美貿易逆差歸零，抱怨日本不買美國車和美國農產品，又揚言日本在安全方面的負擔過低。
美國在談判中提出多項要求，對農產品列出的關注項目，包括大米、肉類等。美方又聲稱，日本的安全標準屬於妨礙美國汽車進入日本市場的「非關稅壁壘」，要日本修改有關規定。至於日本原先擔心的日圓匯率問題，則並未成為焦點。
自1978年起，日本已取消進口車關稅，問題在美國車不合日本消費者口味。美國車體積過大、能源效益低、價格偏高，銷售受阻並不涉貿易壁壘。至於農產品，日本執政自民黨為穩票倉，歷來力保米農利益。自民黨內部對以犧牲農業市場換取汽車關稅豁免仍存在不少反對聲音。
更令日本政府憂慮的是，即使讓步，美國是否真會撤銷關稅仍是未知之數。除了24％「對等關稅」，美國亦以國安名義對所有鋼鐵與汽車產品徵收25％關稅。赤澤在首輪談判中要求美國檢討此類關稅，但美國拒絕，赤澤計劃在第二輪談判中再次提要求。
日本將於7月舉行參議院選舉，首相石破茂目前民望低迷，若在談判中對美國過多讓步，勢必衝擊選情。部分日本保守派輿論認為，日本應減少依賴中國的經濟，藉此換取特朗普在關稅問題上寬待。然而，日本是中國最大的貿易伙伴之一，日本縮減跟中國的經貿關係亦將衝擊日本經濟，惹來商界反彈。
彭博社早前引述匿名日本官員指出，日本並不希望捲入任何美國旨在加大對華貿易壓力的行動，日本將優先考慮自身利益。當然，日本還握有另一張王牌，即美國國債。日本是全球最大美債持有國，未來是否會巧妙運用這張底牌爭取最大利益，值得關注。
■ Glossary 生字 /
give way : to stop resisting sb/sth; to agree to do sth that you do not want to do
hamper : to prevent sb from easily doing or achieving sth
trump card : sth that gives you an advantage over other people, especially when they do not know what it is and you are able to use it to surprise them