【明報專訊】WASHINGTON'S sweeping "reciprocal tariff" measures have come into effect, with duties on Chinese imports exceeding 100%. Far from capitulating, US President Donald Trump's campaign of maximum pressure is only spurring Beijing to accelerate domestic economic reforms and deepen trade ties with other trading partners. As the China-US economic confrontation escalates, Hong Kong would do well to uphold its longstanding role as a duty-free port. Any symbolic move, such as imposing retaliatory tariffs on American goods, would be both ineffectual and unnecessary.
As the world's second-largest economy, China must stand up to US economic coercion. Otherwise, Trump is likely to intensify his demands and blackmail the whole world. Since returning to office, Trump has cited the fentanyl crisis and "reciprocal tariffs" to justify levies of 20% and 84%, respectively, on Chinese imports. Beijing, in turn, has responded with a coordinated suite of countermeasures: a total of 84% in retaliatory tariffs on US goods, export controls, the addition of US companies to the Unreliable Entity List, and the launch of investigations into anti-dumping and anti-monopoly violations. The speed and coherence of China's response suggest a well-prepared playbook—each US move answered with a systematic and calculated riposte.
China's ongoing economic restructuring has steadily reduced its reliance on the American market. Although the absolute value of exports to the US remains considerable, they now account for only around 2.5% of China's GDP. The tariff war will inevitably place pressure on Chinese economic growth, but Beijing has already readied a range of monetary and fiscal tools to stimulate domestic demand and boost consumption, mitigating the impact of the tariff war.
At its heart, the China-US trade conflict is a showdown between suppliers and consumers—an endurance test of economic resilience. While China may contend with external headwinds, the US would face mounting risks of surging inflation and creeping stagflation—conditions that the White House may struggle to withstand.
During a speech earlier this week, White House economic adviser Stephen Miran set out five "expectations" for America's trading partners regarding the tariff war. These include a warning against retaliation, a demand to buy more American goods, and even a suggestion that allies should "write cheques" to the US Treasury as compensation for the "global public goods" Washington claims to provide. Trump aims to use the tariff war to force all trading partners to sign a modern-day "Plaza Accord", enabling the US to harvest the world. Premature concessions risk inviting further exploitation.
Hong Kong imposes zero tariffs on the vast majority of its imports. Over the past decade, the US has run a cumulative trade surplus of US$271.5 billion with the city. Yet under Washington's reciprocal tariff regime, exports from Hong Kong are still subject to tariffs. As China's vital gateway to the world, Hong Kong's safeguarding of its identity as a free port is crucial to both the city and the nation.
In the face of intensifying China-US economic confrontation, Hong Kong's most effective contribution is not to mirror Beijing's countermeasures with symbolic tariffs, but to reaffirm its role as a liberal, open and globally integrated economy.
明報社評2025.04.10：北京加強內外部署 貿易戰有韌力周旋
美國徵收「對等關稅」措施正式生效，針對中國進口貨關稅率超過100%。特朗普「極限施壓」只會促使中國對內加快經濟轉型腳步、對外加強與其他貿易伙伴合作。中美經濟大戰爆發，香港應該做的事是堅持免稅自由港角色，象徵式向美國貨徵收關稅反制，既無效果，亦不必要。
中國作為全球第二大經濟體，若不站出來向美國經濟霸凌說不，特朗普只會變本加厲敲詐全世界。特朗普回朝以來，先後以「芬太尼問題」和「對等關稅」之名，分別向中國進口貨徵收20%及84%關稅，中方則採取多輪反制措施，除了對美國貨合共徵收84%關稅，還包括將多間美國公司列入出口管制及不可靠實體清單、發起反傾銷反壟斷調查等，反映北京有備而來，每當特朗普有所行動，中方就能迅速施展「反制組合拳」，向美方系統性反擊。
近年中國經濟轉型，對美國依靠度持續下降。中國對美出口金額雖大，但佔GDP比例僅2.5%左右。關稅戰對中國經濟表現將帶來明顯壓力，但中方早已預備貨幣及財政政策工具，刺激內需提振消費，緩減關稅戰的衝擊。
中美貿易戰，某程度上是一場供應方與消費方的「對決」，勝負關鍵始終要看誰更能忍痛。若說中國經濟受壓難捱，關稅戰也可能導致美國通脹急飈、經濟陷入滯脹，白宮也不一定能硬撐下去。
白宮經濟顧問米倫本周在一場演講中，就關稅戰向各國列出5點「期望」，除了警告切勿報復、購買更多美國貨外，還包括給美國財政部「開支票」，幫美國提供的「全球公共財」埋單。特朗普欲以關稅戰逼所有貿易伙伴跟美國簽訂「新版廣場協議」，好讓美國收割全球，輕言退讓隨時任人魚肉。
香港絕大部分進口商品均免稅，過去10年，美國對港貿易順差達2715億美元，但在美國「對等關稅」下，香港貨品出口往美國仍遭徵稅。然而香港是國家對外重要門戶，堅持免稅自由港角色，無論對香港還是國家都非常重要。
中美經濟大戰下，香港若要配合國家，最合適的行動，不是對美國進口貨徵收象徵式關稅以示與國家反制「同步」，而是貫徹自由港定位，彰顯本港國際化優勢。
■ Glossary 生字 /
coercion : the action of making sb do sth that they do not want to do, using force or threatening to use force
riposte : a course of action that takes place in response to sth that has happened
concession : sth that you allow or do in order to end an argument or to make a situation less difficult