【明報專訊】THE CHINA-US TRADE WAR is escalating. US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on imported Chinese goods. Beijing stressed that it would not accept the US's blackmail and vowed to fight to the end if Washington insists on having its way. Trump has started a tariff war with the entire world not only for the purpose of eliminating the US trade deficit, but also to ''restructure the global economy''. The ''new world economic order'' sought by the US is one that enables Washington to freeload off the whole world.
The average tariff rate levied by the US was only 2.5% last year. However, with the ''tariff tsunami'' unleashed by Trump's return to power, it has now reached 24%, making the US one of the countries with the highest tariff rates in the world. Some Wall Street insiders have expected the White House to withdraw some of the ''reciprocal tariff'' measures after rounds of negotiations, bringing the average tariff rate down to 12% to 15%. But even so, that level would still be very high, no different from that of high-tariff economies like Iran or Venezuela.
The US claimed that dozens of countries have already reached out, hoping to start negotiations over the tariffs. However, it remains unclear what exactly Trump wants. Verbally, he has talked of ''resolving unfair asymmetric tariff deals'' with trade partners. But in reality, he is merely using the tariff war as a ploy to threaten and force other countries into ''serving America first'' on various matters, maintaining US hegemony.
Although seen by Trump as an evil disease that must be cured, the trade deficit is actually only a symptom rather than the problem itself. Most economists generally believe that trade deficits are not necessarily a bad thing, and sometimes can even be a reflection of a robust economy. When the US imports more than it exports, it means US dollars are flowing overseas. However, foreign enterprises or governments will then reinvest the dollars in their pockets in dollar-denominated assets like US Treasury bonds and US stocks, thus forming a ''dollar cycle'' that supports US debt financing. Furthermore, for the dollar to remain the world's reserve currency, it must meet the demands of global liquidity. Having a large amount of dollars overseas implies that the US must maintain its trade deficit in the long term. In other words, dollar hegemony actually has an inseparable link with the US trade deficit.
The largest hidden risk in the US economy is the country's rapidly ballooning debts. The continuous expansion of the government's fiscal expenditure to stimulate domestic demand has led to increased imports (thus widening the trade deficit) and growing debts. Such a heavily-indebted economic model is unsustainable in the long run, yet the key to solving the problem is not tackling the trade deficit.
In an article published late last year, Stephen Miran, the new chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, advocated using the lure of US security guarantees and the threat of tariffs to force foreign governments into swapping their existing US Treasury bonds for special ultra-low-yield and ultra-long-term bonds (for example, century bonds) issued by the US. In this way, the US can significantly reduce its annual interest expenses by hundreds of billions of dollars. The idea is tantamount to having a debtor defaulting on their debt shamelessly while even forcing the creditor to accept a repayment amount that is 60% to 70% off or even lower.
Apparently, some countries still believe that they can patch up the quarrel by lifting non-tariff trade barriers and further opening up their markets. However, adopting a policy of appeasement and accepting the US's blackmail may only result in Trump pushing the limits further.
明報社評 2025.04.09：「重組全球經濟」服務美國 白宮關稅戰另有所圖
中美貿易戰愈演愈烈，美國總統特朗普威脅再加進口中國貨50%關稅，北京強調絕不接受美方訛詐，華府若一意孤行，中方必奉陪到底。特朗普向全球發動關稅戰，目的不止是要消除美國貿易逆差，還要「重組全球經濟」。美方所追求的「全球經濟新秩序」，是一個讓美國佔盡全世界便宜的秩序。
美國的平均關稅率，去年還不過是2.5%，然而隨着特朗普回朝掀起一場「關稅海嘯」，現時美國平均關稅率已達到24%，成為全球其中一個關稅率最高的國家。一些華爾街中人預期，經過連番談判後，白宮將撤去部分「對等關稅」措施，平均關稅率回落至12%至15%，然而這水平其實仍然很高，跟伊朗和委內瑞拉這類高關稅經濟體沒兩樣。
美方聲稱現時已有數十國家主動聯絡，希望就關稅問題展開談判，然而究竟特朗普具體想要什麼，仍是不清不楚。特朗普嘴上說要跟貿易伙伴「解決不公平不對等關稅問題」，實際上他只是以關稅戰作為要脅手段，逼其他國家就範，在不同層面為「美國優先」服務，維護美國霸權。
特朗普將貿易逆差視為必須根治的「惡疾」，但貿易逆差其實只是一種表徵，而非問題本身。大多數經濟學家普遍認為，貿易逆差不一定是壞事，有時甚至是經濟強勁的反映。當美國進口大於出口，意味美元流向海外，但外國企業或政府又會將手上的美元，投資於美國國債、股票等美元資產，形成「美元循環」，支持了美國的債務融資；另外，美元要繼續作為全球儲備貨幣，必須能夠滿足全球流動性的需求，而海外要有大量美元，就意味美國必須長期維持貿易逆差。換言之，美元霸權與美國貿易逆差，實有密不可分的關係。
美國經濟長遠最大隱患是債務急速膨脹。政府持續擴大財政支出，刺激國內需求，後果是進口增加（逆差擴大），以及債務愈滾愈大。這樣的超高負債經濟模式長遠不可持續，只是解決問題核心不在貿易逆差。
新任白宮經濟顧問委員會主席米倫去年底發表論文，主張可以軍事安全保障及關稅脅迫手段，逼外國政府同意將手上的美國國債，跟由美方發行一些超低息超長期（例如100年）特殊債券「交換」，讓美國每年可以大幅減省千億美元計的還息支出。有關構思形同債仔耍賴違約，還強迫債主接受三四折甚至更低的還款額。
一些國家似乎仍相信，透過取消非關稅貿易壁壘及進一步開放市場，就能息事寧人，然而奉行綏靖主義，接受美方訛詐，可能只會換來特朗普得寸進尺。
■/ Glossary 生字 /
asymmetric：not equal, for example in the way each side or part behaves
default (on sth)：to fail to do sth that you legally have to do, especially by not paying a debt
appeasement：the practice of giving a country what it wants in order to avoid war