【明報專訊】THE UNITED STATES' "reciprocal tariff" policy has rattled global financial markets, sparking a worldwide sell-off. Yet US President Donald Trump shows no sign of retreat. On the contrary, he has threatened to impose a further 50% in tariffs should China fail to withdraw its countermeasures. Washington's trade deficit stems from structural imbalances within its own economy—erecting a tariff wall against the world will not resolve it. If the White House persists with this unilateral approach, the consequences may include not only a battered global economy, but also an "economic nuclear winter" for the US.
Trump's ambition to reset the global trading order through "reciprocal tariffs" is an attempt to correct so-called trade imbalances by pressuring other countries into making economic concessions to the US. Yet America's massive trade deficit is primarily due to the inability of its domestic production base to meet the demand of a low-saving, highly consumption-driven economy, which necessitates significant imports. The US's trade deficit is the combined result of its domestic economic structure and policy choices. Addressing it requires reforming the savings–investment dynamic and enhancing manufacturing competitiveness—not erecting high tariff barriers, which do nothing to resolve structural inefficiencies or elevated production costs.
To Trump, "reciprocal tariffs" are a bitter pill, yet in the eyes of markets and most economists, they are more akin to a reckless misprescription—mistaking poison for the cure. In anticipation of the policy's fallout, analysts now predict the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates four or five times this year. Yet monetary easing is no panacea: its effect on market stability remains uncertain, while its inflationary impulse is all but assured. Ray Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, has warned that the tariff strategy risks plunging the US into severe stagflation.
Reports have lately circulated suggesting divisions within the White House over the tariff agenda. Market speculation last night (7 April) pointed to a possible concession—but whether this signals internal disarray remains unknown. The reality is that Trump is self-willed and continues to override expert advice, emboldened by the absence of any real constraint within the Republican Party. A civil rights group has mounted a legal challenge on behalf of a US company, accusing the president of abusing the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose these "reciprocal tariffs". The outcome remains uncertain. For now, it appears that the only meaningful check may come from the markets themselves.
Trump intends to drop the "tariff nuclear bomb" on the entire world. China and the European Union—economic powers in their own right—are hardly without recourse. Trump disregards the fact that China and the EU possess comparable retaliatory capacity to achieve "Mutually Assured Destruction", a Cold War-era concept which once deterred nuclear confrontation between major powers. His threat last night to slap an additional 50% tariff on China, should it not withdraw its 34% counter-tariff, may yet tip the world into an economic disaster of nuclear proportions.
Even Bill Ackman, the prominent hedge fund manager who backed Trump's presidential bid last year, has publicly criticised the "reciprocal tariff" policy as a mistake, calling for a 90-day suspension and warning that, without swift de-escalation, the US risks descending into an "economic nuclear winter". Whether Wall Street can curb Trump's economic belligerence remains to be seen.
明報社評2025.04.08：特朗普關稅一意孤行 經濟核戰爆發害全球
美國「對等關稅」政策引發環球股災，特朗普未見退讓，更威脅中國若不撤回反制措施，將再加五成關稅。美國貿易逆差問題，源於自身經濟結構，並非向全球築起關稅高牆就能解決。倘若白宮一意孤行，不僅環球經濟重挫，美國也將陷入「經濟核寒冬」。
特朗普欲以「對等關稅」重設全球貿易秩序，脅迫各國向美國讓利，解決所謂貿易逆差問題，然而，美國對外貿易逆差龐大，乃美國經濟高度依賴消費帶動，儲蓄率長期偏低，國內生產無法滿足需求，自然需要大量進口商品。美國貿易逆差本質是國內經濟結構及政策選擇的綜合結果，若要根本調整，必須改革儲蓄與投資結構、提升製造業競爭力。高築關稅壁壘，無助改變美國經濟結構問題，也無法解決生產成本高的問題。
特朗普將「對等關稅」比作「苦口良藥」，看在市場及大多數經濟學家眼裏，根本是藥石亂投，將砒霜當補藥。市場估計，為緩減關稅政策影響，聯儲局今年或減息4至5次，然而，減息托市成效難料，但幾可肯定會進一步刺激通脹。全球最大對冲基金橋水創辦人達利奧便認為，「對等關稅」措施將導致美國嚴重滯脹。
市場近日流傳白宮內部對關稅政策有分歧。昨晚市場流傳「讓步」消息，白宮是否已亂作一團，外界無從得知。現實是特朗普剛愎自用，無視專家意見，共和黨目前亦缺乏制衡力量。有民權組織代表美國企業入稟，控告特朗普濫用《國際緊急經濟權力法》（ IEEPA）開徵「對等關稅」，結果如何難以逆料。觀乎目前情况，看來要破局還得靠市場力量。
特朗普要向世界各地投下「關稅核彈」，像中國、歐盟等規模巨大的經濟體，並非沒有還擊之力。「相互保證毁滅」（Mutually Assured Destruction）是冷戰時代阻止大國爆發核戰的理論。特朗普無視中國和歐盟在關稅問題上所具備的「相互保證毁滅」能力，昨晚還威脅中國若不撤回34%關稅反制措施，將再加五成關稅，結果確有可能令全球陷入一場核戰級經濟災難。
去年力挺特朗普競選的美國對冲基金巨頭艾克曼，公開批評「對等關稅」政策錯誤，呼籲暫緩執行90天，若不及時叫停，美國將面臨「經濟核寒冬」。且看華爾街的力量，最終能否折服特朗普。
■ Glossary 生字 /
brinkmanship : the art or practice of pursuing a dangerous policy to the limits of safety before stopping, especially in politics
recourse : the fact of having to, or being able to, use sth that can provide help in a difficult situation
belligerence : unfriendly and aggressive feelings or behaviour