【明報專訊】THE TAIWAN COMMUNITY has been hit by double external shocks in recent days. First came the "Strait Thunder-2025A" exercises by the People's Liberation Army (PLA), followed immediately by reckless tariff bashing by US President Donald Trump against the whole world, imposing a 32% tariff on Taiwan. Neither the drills nor the tariffs were without warning. The fact that Taiwan was caught entirely off guard has revealed the bias blind spots of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) government and even the Taiwan community regarding changes in geopolitics and the island's economic structure.
Last Tuesday (1 April) and Wednesday, the PLA Eastern Theatre Command launched joint military exercises involving the army, navy, air and rocket forces. Not only were battle drills for encircling Taiwan conducted, but blockades of the middle and southern waters of the Taiwan Strait were also simulated, which the Command said clearly were for the goal of controlling the energy corridor and cutting off the key supply routes of Taiwan.
Taiwan imports 99% of its natural gas, and the two receiving terminals lie exactly within the firing range of the PLA drills. Furthermore, the Eastern Theatre Command released a video titled "Subdue Demons and Vanquish Evils", which featured Hankou Street near Taiwan's "Presidential Office", followed by missile launching scenes. Taiwanese public opinion smelt a hint of "decapitation" from it.
Peaceful reunification remains Beijing's basic policy towards Taiwan, with "unifying by force" as the last resort. The PLA's continuous escalation of military pressure is still to prevent "Taiwan independence" and force the island into talks. In playing the "anti-China" politics, the green camp of Taiwan has employed the meanest of tricks and defamed political rivals as "comrades of the Chinese Communist Party", leading to growing political antagonism.
The trump card for holding back against China comes from reliance on the US. However, Taiwan's political and economic sectors were invariably thrown into panic after Trump slapped "reciprocal tariffs" on the whole world last Thursday, with Taiwan facing a tariff rate reaching 32%, only two percentage points lower than that imposed on the other side of the Taiwan Strait. Exports account for 60% of Taiwan's GDP, and one-fourth of Taiwan's exports are destined for the US. Economists estimate that Trump's tariffs will lead to a 63% contraction in Taiwan's exports to the US and a reduction of 3.8 percentage points in its GDP.
The green camp plays ostrich in relation to the US. When the entire world was holding its breath for the coming of Trump's "Liberation Day", Taiwan Premier Cho Jung-tai vowed that "we can all have a good sleep" and claimed that the government was "fully prepared for the sake of the people and industries". After the island woke up to find that it was heavily taxed, the DPP authorities hastily called a contingency meeting. Only on the next day did they admit that Taiwan's industrial and agricultural exports would all be significantly affected and announce the launch of an NT$88 billion assistance package.
In an article published in the New York Times, renowned Taiwanese writer Lung Ying-tai starts with a Taiwanese taxi driver's lament, "Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow", questioning the reliability of the US's commitments to Taiwan, the costs of cross-strait confrontation and where the path to peace lies. Trump is the manifestation of the US's self-serving nature. This has led to a sharp rise of America scepticism in Taiwan.
Taiwan must not depend on Washington's calculations; the key to its future lies in the way it handles cross-strait relations. The combination of the English and Chinese titles of Lung's article serves as a meaningful warning: The clock is ticking for Taiwan, and the only way to maintain peace and freedom is through conciliation with China.
明報社評2025.04.07：軍演關稅雙重震盪 台灣沉溺煮蛙效應
台灣社會最近幾天接連面對兩大外部震盪，先是解放軍展開「海峽雷霆-2025A」演習，緊接而來是美國總統特朗普向全球胡亂揮舞關稅大棒，對台課稅達32%。無論軍演還是關稅，其實都不是毫無預兆，台灣顯得措手不及，暴露了民進黨政府以至台灣社會對地緣政治變局與台灣經濟結構的認知盲點。
上周二（4月1日）至周三，解放軍東部戰區海陸空與火箭軍等兵力展開聯合軍演，不僅演練圍台作戰，更模擬封鎖台灣海峽中部與南部海域。東部戰區表明，此舉意在控制能源通道與切斷台灣的補給要道。
台灣99%天然氣依賴進口，兩大接收站就位於解放軍演習的火力覆蓋範圍之內。東部戰區還發放名為《降妖除魔》的視頻，當中出現台灣「總統府」附近的漢口街，隨即切入發射導彈畫面，台灣輿論從中嗅出「斬首」暗示。
和平統一是北京對台基本方針，「武統」屬最後選項，解放軍不斷提升軍事壓力，更大目的仍是防「獨」逼談。台灣綠營操弄「抗中」政治，無所不用其極把政治對手抹紅為「中共同路人」，政治對立日趨嚴重。
「抗中」最大本錢是依附美國，然而，特朗普上周四砸出向全球徵收的「對等關稅」，卻讓台灣政經各界陷入恐慌，台灣面對的稅率達32%，僅比對岸少兩個百分點。出口佔台灣GDP比重六成，其中四分之一輸往美國，經濟學家推算，特朗普關稅將導致台灣對美出口萎縮63%，GDP收縮3.8個百分點。
面對美國，綠營心甘情願做鴕鳥。全球對特朗普「解放日」屏息以待，台灣行政院長卓榮泰卻信誓旦旦叫「大家安心入睡」，聲言「已為民眾和產業做足準備」。一覺醒來發現台灣被課重稅，民進黨當局急忙召開應變會議，再隔一日才承認台灣工農業出口都面臨重大影響，宣布推出880億新台幣協助方案。
台灣知名作家龍應台在《紐約時報》發表文章，以台灣計程車司機感嘆「今日烏克蘭、明日台灣」為開篇，拷問美國對台承諾的可靠性、兩岸對抗的代價，以及和平之路何在。特朗普清晰展現美國利益至上的本質，令台灣內部「疑美論」驟然升溫。
台灣不能寄生於華府的盤算，真正的命門在於如何處理兩岸關係。龍應台文章中英文版標題合在一起作出了有意義的警示：台灣的時間不多了（The clock is ticking for Taiwan），維持和平與自由的唯一途徑是與中國和解。
■ Glossary 生字 /
decapitation : a military strategy aimed at removing the leadership of a hostile government or group
comrade : a person who is a member of the same communist or socialist political party as the person speaking
conciliation : a process that aims to end an argument between people or groups