【明報專訊】FLAMES ARE RISING from multiple fronts of the US's tariff war, as its new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada took effect yesterday (4 March). Aside from increasing duties on Chinese goods by another 10%, President Donald Trump also announced tariffs on all imported aluminium, steel and agricultural products at a later time. However, the attempt by "Trump 2.0" to broaden the scale of the tariff war may not necessarily earn him a sweeping victory. All wars embody uncertainties. If the tariff war eventually drags the world into recession, the US economy will not fare well either.
Citing concerns over fentanyl, Washington imposed 10% extra tariffs on imported Chinese goods early last month, marking the opening shot of the tariff war launched by "Trump 2.0". His decision to levy 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, after a suspension of one month, also officially came into force yesterday.
The Canadian government said it would strike back by imposing 25% tariffs on Can$155 billion worth of American goods, while Mexico will reveal its retaliatory measures on Sunday. Beijing also announced an array of countermeasures yesterday. They include imposing additional 15% tariffs on US chicken, wheat, corn and cotton as well as 10% extra tariffs on US soya beans and pork, among others. Moreover, 10 US firms were added to the unreliable entity list.
Goods from China, Canada and Mexico account for over 40% of the total value of imported goods to the US. The most direct effect of the tariff measures is the weakened price competitiveness of related goods in the US domestic market. However, US local production costs will not decrease as a result. Rather, it is even more likely that they go up, thus stimulating domestic inflation. Some economic analyses have pointed out that Washington's tariff measures on Canada and Mexico will increase the production costs of US vehicles, raising the average price of US cars by US$3,000.
It is unfeasible to narrow trade deficits by imposing tariffs alone. Economist Desmond Lachman, affiliated with the American Enterprise Institute, has noted two points: (1) as long as a country saves less than it invests, it will run a trade deficit — no matter how high its tariff wall may be; (2) the soaring rather than shrinking of the trade deficit during the "Trump 1.0" presidency was directly related to the increased fiscal deficit caused by Trump's lavish tax cuts. Yet of course, reducing the trade deficit is only one of his considerations behind the tariff war. The fentanyl problem, if not a pretext, is certainly not his only concern either. Tariffs are only his blackmail tactic. It is necessary to understand Trump's real intention first.
Since the Sino-US trade war broke out in 2018, many Chinese companies have moved parts of their downstream production lines to other countries like Vietnam and Mexico. Apparently, one of the purposes of the recent tariff bashing by "Trump 2.0" on Mexico and even Vietnam was to force these countries into imposing tariffs on Chinese goods. Some Chinese companies have said that they may have to move their factories again to Brazil or other places in Southeast Asia, for example. Taking another perspective, this is in fact also driving Chinese companies to take more initiative in venturing out into new markets and new footholds.
China has been striving to transform its economy, evolving from an exporter of low-end and cheap consumer goods in the past to an advanced manufacturing power. Sooner or later, some of the middle- to low-end productions will decline or move out of the country, only to be incidentally hastened by the tariff war. Over the last six or seven years, China's new quality production forces have continued to grow, with the birth of DeepSeek stunning the world. China will feel pain in the tariff war, but it has the full confidence to fight.
明報社評 2025.03.05：特朗普關稅戰加碼 勝負之數言之尚早
關稅戰烽煙四起，美國對墨西哥及加拿大商品加徵兩成半關稅昨天生效，總統特朗普除了向中國貨品額外再加徵一成關稅，又提到稍後將向所有外國進口鋁鋼及農產品加徵關稅。「特朗普2.0」擴大關稅戰規模，不等於一定可以大獲全勝。任何戰爭都充滿不確定性，關稅戰最終若累得環球衰退，美國經濟也不可能好過。
美方以芬太尼問題為由，上月初對進口中國商品加徵10%關稅，標誌「特朗普2.0」打響關稅戰第一槍。至於對墨加兩國貨品開徵25%關稅的決定，在暫緩執行一個月後，亦於昨天正式生效。
加拿大政府表示，對價值1550億加元的美國商品徵收25%關稅報復，墨西哥則將於周日公布報復措施。北京昨天也宣布多項反制措施，包括對美國雞肉、小麥、玉米、棉花加徵15%關稅，對美國大豆、豬肉等加徵10%關稅，以及將10間企業列入不可靠實體清單等。
中加墨三國貨品，佔美國總入口貨值超過四成。關稅措施最直接的效果是削弱相關貨品在本地市場的價格競爭力，但本地生產成本不會因此下降，反而更有可能上升，刺激本地通脹。有經濟分析就指出，美國對加墨的關稅措施，增加美國汽車生產成本，平均每部美國車價格將增加3000美元。
加徵關稅本身無法縮窄逆差。美國企業研究院經濟學家拉赫曼就指出兩點：1）當一個國家的儲蓄少於實際投資，就一定會錄得貿易逆差，不管關稅有多高；2）「特朗普1.0」任內貿赤不減反增，與特朗普大幅減稅擴大財政赤字有直接關係。當然，特朗普發動關稅戰，縮窄貿易逆差不過是考慮之一。芬太尼問題就算不是口實，也肯定不是特朗普唯一關注點。關稅不過是勒索手段，須先清楚特朗普的真實意圖。
自從2018年中美貿易戰爆發以來，不少中國企業都將部分下游生產線移至越南、墨西哥等地。「特朗普2.0」最近向墨西哥以至越南揮起關稅大棒，目的之一似乎是想逼這些國家向中國貨加徵關稅，有中國企業表示，或許要再搬廠房到其他國家，例如巴西或其他東南亞地方。換個角度看，這其實也會促使中國企業更加積極「走出去」物色新的市場和新的落腳點。
中國經濟轉型，力爭由之前依賴輸出低檔廉價消費品，進化成為先進製造業大國，部分中低檔生產早晚會走向式微又或外移，關稅戰其實意外地加速了這一過程。過去6、7年中國新質生產力持續成長，DeepSeek面世更是震驚國際。關稅戰對中國不會無痛，但中國也有十足底氣迎戰。
/ Glossary生字 /
retaliatory：intended to harm sb because they harmed you first
countermeasure：a course of action taken to protect against sth that is considered bad or dangerous
pretext：a false reason that you give for doing sth, usually sth bad, in order to hide the real reason; an excuse