【明報專訊】THE GOVERNMENT has unveiled its Budget, projecting a fiscal deficit of $87.2 billion for the current financial year. The outlook for the year ahead remains far from promising: even if official forecasts are accurate, the shortfall can be narrowed to $67 billion, still leaving a sizeable gap in public finances. The authorities maintain that the consolidated account will return to surplus in four years. Yet, without accounting for net proceeds from bond issuance, the timeline for the real restoration of fiscal balance remains uncertain. Given the structural nature of the deficit, it is inevitable for the SAR government to step up efforts to boost incomes and cut expenditures.
The latest Budget has further scaled back relief measures. With reductions extending to education and a range of welfare subsidy programmes, those from the lower strata have borne the brunt. Meanwhile, the sense of shared sacrifice among government officials, lawmakers and civil servants is merely a pay freeze rather than any meaningful salary reductions. Given that civil servants remain entitled to incremental pay rises under the existing system, the so-called "salary freeze" does not necessarily preclude an increase in take-home pay. Their generous allowances and benefits remain untouched due to contractual obligations, while salaries are shielded from cuts. For ordinary citizens, this perceived inequity is unlikely to sit well.
The civil service headcount currently stands at around 170,000, though the government's official establishment has reached 190,000. The Budget proposes trimming the latter by 10,000 posts over the administration's current term. However, reducing the establishment from 190,000 to 180,000 does not equate to cutting 10,000 jobs, nor does it necessarily imply a reduction in overall salary expenditure. After years of expansion, the time has come for a serious rationalisation of the civil service. Beyond merely adjusting headcount, the authorities must streamline departmental structures, eliminate redundant roles, and overhaul the salary adjustment mechanism—including the automatic pay increment system.
This year, the Financial Secretary has sought to draw a clearer distinction between the government's operating and non-operating accounts. The former, which includes tax revenue, investment income and recurrent expenditure, is targeted to return to surplus by 2026/27 through a mix of spending cuts and revenue-raising measures. The latter, covering major infrastructure projects and land acquisitions, is to be financed via fiscal reserves and bond issuance. To support long-term initiatives such as the Northern Metropolis, the government plans to ramp up long-term debt issuance over the next five years, with annual borrowing set to range between $150 billion and $195 billion.
The Budget also sets out an "enhanced" fiscal consolidation plan, requiring government departments to achieve a cumulative 7% reduction in recurrent expenditure by 2027/28. The Financial Secretary anticipates that the government's operating and consolidated accounts will return to surplus by 2026/27 and 2028/29, respectively. Whether these projections hold remains to be seen. With bond proceeds included in the consolidated account, the authorities could, in theory, rely on increased borrowing to restore its fiscal position. But such an approach would be inappropriate. Instead of resorting to financial skills or unorthodox means, the government should adopt a more disciplined approach to revenue generation and expenditure control to put Hong Kong's public finances on a sustainable footing.
明報社評 2025.02.27：節流力度有限 滅赤尚待曙光
《財政預算案》出爐，政府本年度財赤料達872億元，下年度情况亦未許樂觀，就算當局預測準確，可以收窄到670億元，公共財政缺口依然相當龐大。當局表示政府綜合帳目可於4年後恢復盈餘，但如果不考慮發債淨所得，政府何時才能真正恢復收支平衡，仍是一個問號。當前特區政府財赤明顯有結構性成分，加大力度開源節流，實屬無可避免。
新一份預算案的「派糖」措施繼續「減甜」，教育和多項民生補貼計劃亦成為開刀對象，對低下階層市民影響尤大。然而，政府高官、議員和公務員的「共渡時艱」，不過是「凍薪不減薪」；若考慮到公務員另外還有「增薪點」制度，所謂「公務員凍薪」，其實並不等於真的沒有人工加。公務員豐厚津貼福利因合約規定不能動，薪酬又不用共渡時艱「捱減」，看在一般市民眼裏，難免心中有氣。
目前公務員實際人數只有17萬，公務員人手編制則達19萬人。預算案提出縮減編制，在本屆政府任期內削減約1萬個職位，然而，將人手編制由19萬減至18萬，絕不等於裁員1萬，也不等於公務員薪酬開支一定比現在少。公務員系統經過多年擴張，是時候整頓，當局需要做的不僅是縮減編制，還應該精簡部門架構、裁減冗職冗員，以及檢討包括增薪點在內的公務員調薪制度。
財政司長今年強調，本港財政應分為經營帳及非經營帳兩大類。涉及稅收、投資收入及日常支出的，屬經營帳目，當局會透過開源節流，爭取在2026/27年度恢復盈餘；涉及大型基建工程及土地徵用的，屬非經營帳目，當局可運用財政儲備及發債等方式，應付收支缺口。為了應付北都等長遠發展項目，政府未來5年有意多發長債，每年發債額度介乎1500億至1950億元左右。
預算案提出「強化版」財政整合計劃，政府各部門到2027/28年度累計須減經常開支7%，財政司長表示，政府經常帳與綜合帳目可分別於2026/27及2028/29年度恢復盈餘，最終能否如願，只能等着瞧。由於政府會把發債淨所得計入綜合帳目之內，理論上，當局可以透過增加發債，令綜合帳目如期恢復盈餘，但這顯然不是恰當做法。政府應加強開源節流力度，實現滅赤目標，切勿依賴財技或各種旁門左道。
/ Glossary生字 /
austerity：difficult economic conditions created by government policies aimed at cutting public spending
preclude：to prevent sth from happening or sb from doing sth; to make sth impossible
unorthodox：different from what is usual or accepted