英文

Editorial:Fragile Israel-Hamas Truce Dominated by Power Game

【明報專訊】AN INDEFINITE CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT reached between Israel and Hamas took effect on Sunday (19 January), bringing a much needed respite for the 2.3 million people of Gaza from the brutal war they had suffered for 15 months. However, the truce was closely tied to a balance of interests against the particular backdrop of Israel and US politics. How long it can last is still a big unknown.

The truce comprises three phases. First, Hamas will release a batch of hostages in exchange for about 1900 Palestinian detainees held by Israel. At the same time, Israeli forces will also begin pulling back from Gaza. The content of the second phase will be negotiated in talks starting after the first phase has taken effect for 16 days. It is expected that phase two will see the remaining hostages held by Hamas released and a full Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza. As for the third phase, it will be about the future reconstruction of Gaza.

In Israel, there are political divisions regarding the truce. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also put on a pugnacious face on the eve of the ceasefire, threatening to resume fighting if negotiations for the second phase collapse.

On 7 October 2023, Hamas launched terrorist attacks on Israel, killing about 1,200 people and taking more than 200 hostages. It was the most severe attack inside Israel since its founding as a country. According to Israeli estimates, nearly 100 hostages are still held at this moment, of whom about 30 are presumed dead.

In response, Israel imposed a complete blockade on Gaza and launched a large-scale military operation that has taken nearly 47,000 lives so far, or an average of 100 every day. Israel claims to have killed 17,000 armed militants, but humanitarian organisations argue that most casualties were women and children. The international community has widely criticised Israel for indiscriminate killings of innocent people. Some human rights groups have even accused it of committing acts of genocide.

The current truce deal is based on the proposal of US President Joe Biden last May, a framework once confirmed by the UN Security Council and agreed by Hamas, only to be rejected by Netanyahu. He opened a new front against Hezbollah in Lebanon, and, seeing an opportunity in Syria's coup, strengthened military control over the Golan Heights, which Israel has illegally occupied. These major actions have enfeebled the Axis of Resistance led by Iran, Israel's arch enemy, giving Israel a greater military and security advantage.

The effective date of the ceasefire agreement was just one day before the US presidential transition, which can hardly be taken as a pure coincidence. Donald Trump has noted clearly that he wants an end to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by the time he inaugurates, and the truce will, in the end, be implemented during his term. This cannot be beyond the calculations of Netanyahu, who never bothers about Biden. Nevertheless, it does not necessarily mean that Trump will bring a positive turning point to the relations between Israel and Palestinians.

If Trump's track record foretells anything, it would be his further marginalisation of the Palestinians. During his first term, he moved the US embassy to Jerusalem and recognised Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights. He even encouraged Arab states to drop the demand on Israel of recognising a Palestinian state as a prerequisite for building diplomatic relations. The negligence of Palestinians' demands is the very crux that traps Israeli-Palestinian relations in a vicious cycle. An agreement of ceasefire on paper cannot alter the fact that the foundation for peace is weak.

明報社評 2025.01.20:權力遊戲主導停火 加沙前景仍然脆弱

以色列與哈馬斯達成的無限期停火協議周日(1月19日)開始生效,為經歷了15個月殘酷戰爭的230萬加沙民眾帶來急需的喘息。然而,協議與以色列及美國在特定政治背景下的利益權衡密切相關,停火可以持續多久仍是個大問號。

停火分為三個階段。在第一階段,哈馬斯將先釋放一批人質,以色列用近1900名巴人囚犯交換,並開始從加沙撤軍。次階段的內容將於首階段實施16日後開始談判,預計包括哈馬斯釋放其餘人質,以及以軍全面撤出加沙。第三階段則關乎加沙未來如何重建。

以色列內部對停火有政治分歧,總理內塔尼亞胡在停火前夕也強硬表態,威脅若第二階段談判失敗,以方將恢復戰鬥。

哈馬斯在2023年10月7日對以色列發動恐襲,殺死約1200人,擄走逾200人。這是以色列建國以來境內遭受的最嚴重攻擊,以方估計目前仍有近百名人質被扣押,當中約30人料已死亡。

以方用全面封鎖加沙及大規模軍事行動回應,迄今近4.7萬人死於以軍炮火之下,平均每天有100人被殺。以方聲稱擊殺了1.7萬名武裝分子,但人道組織指傷亡者大部分是婦孺。國際社會廣泛批評以方濫殺無辜,一些人權組織甚至指控其種族清洗。

此次停火協議以美國總統拜登去年5月提出的方案為基礎,聯合國安理會曾確認該框架,哈馬斯也表示支持,但內塔尼亞胡並不收貨。他既針對黎巴嫩真主黨開闢新的戰線,又趁敘利亞變天之機對以國非法佔領的戈蘭高地加強軍事控制,大舉削弱以國頭號敵人伊朗所構建的「抵抗軸心」,令以色列獲得更大的軍事與安全優勢。

停火協議生效日恰好是美國新舊總統交接的前一天,這很難被視為單純的巧合。特朗普曾表明希望上任前結束以巴衝突,而停火協議最終會在特朗普任內執行,一直不給拜登臉面的內塔尼亞胡不會沒有這一層算計。但這不必然意味特朗普將為以巴關係帶來轉機。

若特朗普的往績有何啟示,那就是他會進一步將巴勒斯坦邊緣化。他在首個任期內把美國大使館遷至耶路撒冷,又承認以色列對戈蘭高地擁有主權,還誘使阿拉伯國家放棄以支持巴勒斯坦建國作為前提來與以色列建交的訴求。無視巴人訴求,恰恰是以巴關係困於惡性循環的癥結所在。一紙協議扭轉不了和平基礎薄弱的事實。

/ Glossary生字 /

pugnacious:having a strong desire to argue or fight with other people

genocide:​the murder of a large number of people from a particular nation or ethnic group, with the aim of destroying that nation or group

enfeeble (sb/sth):to make sb/sth weak

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