【明報專訊】LOOKING AHEAD TO 2025, Donald Trump's return to US presidency will undoubtedly be the biggest variable affecting the overall global situation. Hong Kong must take precautions against ''headwinds'' caused by geopolitical environment deterioration and external market fluctuations. That said, there is no need to go overboard and be on tenterhooks all day long. In the face of an unpredictable external situation, the most important thing is to stay calm and avoid going to pieces.
Reflecting on 2024, Financial Secretary Paul Chan remarks that the atmosphere in the local asset market has improved over the past few months and the property market has also gradually stabilised. Although the retail and catering sectors still face relatively greater challenges, the number of mainland visitors to Hong Kong has notably increased recently because of the multiple-entry Individual Visit Scheme. The streets were bustling during Christmas holiday, and that would provide support to the retail and catering sectors.
The Hang Seng Index ended its four-year downward trend with a cumulative gain of about 18% last year, similar to the MSCI World Index's increase of 19%. It was no way an underperformance, only that the confidence of investors was still weak. As for the property market, the city's housing prices fell by about 6.8% last year, but the number of transactions reached a three-year high. Given the signs of stability in the property market in recent months, market participants are looking forward to a reversal of the three-year downtrend this year.
The direction of US economic and foreign policies following Trump's return to the White House is undoubtedly a concern in the new year. Trump has long regarded stock market performances as a political achievement and would absolutely desire a rate cut to stimulate the investment market. However, if his proposed tariff increases and financial policies are enacted, the pressure on inflation will certainly increase, making it hard for interest rates to fall. Trump has regarded tariff hikes as a chip for bargaining with other countries. At this stage, it is hard to predict which of, and to what extent, his declared threats of tariff increases will be implemented. As such, it is extremely difficult to accurately assess the interest rate outlook.
The 2.5% projected growth of Hong Kong's economy last year is closely related to the city's export and entrepot trade performance. If Trump's threat of 60% tariffs on all Chinese imports comes true, Hong Kong's economic performance will inevitably be affected. But on the other hand, he seems to be seeking to start negotiations with Beijing as soon as possible. After all, while surrounded by a whole bunch of China hawks, Trump is also accompanied by the world's richest man, Elon Musk, who has business deals with China. The SAR government has the responsibility to draw up different plans to cope with different scenarios.
Although the geopolitical scene casts a shadow on Hong Kong, the city can find the strongest backing in the nation. By speeding up integration with the country's development masterplan and actively seeking support from the Greater Bay Area, Hong Kong's economic upgrading and restructuring will be further boosted.
At the same time, Hong Kong should also enhance its ''connectivity with the world''. The Western bloc is ramping up contact with China to ensure more room for manoeuvre against pressure from Trump. As Hong Kong has long been in close engagement with these countries, it can play the role of a super-connector.
明報社評 2025.01.01：風雨彩虹心懷希望 沉着冷靜應對挑戰
展望2025年世界大勢，特朗普回朝再當美國總統，無疑是最大變數，香港得做好「防風措施」，提防地緣政治環境惡化與外圍市場波動所帶來的衝擊，惟亦不必見風是雨、惶惶不可終日。面對外部變幻莫測形勢，最重要是沉着冷靜，避免自亂陣腳。
財政司長陳茂波回顧2024年，談到過去數月本港資產市場氣氛好轉，樓市亦漸趨平穩，至於零售及餐飲市道，雖然仍面對較大挑戰，不過「一簽多行」安排下，內地來港旅客人數，近期顯著增多，剛過去的聖誕節假期，街上人頭湧湧，對零售及餐飲市道都有支持作用。
恒指去年終結了連續4年下跌的趨勢，全年累升約18%，與MSCI全球指數約19%升幅相近，表現不算失禮，只是投資者的信心仍然薄弱。樓市方面，去年本港樓價跌幅約為6.8%，交投量則創3年最高。近月樓市有回穩迹象，市場人士期盼今年可扭轉連跌3年走勢。
新一年特朗普入主白宮後美國經濟與外交政策何去何從，無疑是其中一個關注焦點。特朗普一向視股市表現如政績，減息刺激投資市場，固然是其所欲，可是其加徵關稅及財政政策主張如果付諸實行，勢必增加通脹壓力，導致息口難以回落。特朗普視加徵關稅為跟各國討價還價的籌碼，到底哪些加徵關稅要脅會落實、稅率有多高，現階段難以預測；要準確評估息口走勢，自然非常困難。
去年香港經濟可望錄得約2.5%的增長，跟出口轉口表現息息相關。特朗普威脅向進口中國貨品徵收六成關稅，若然成真，難免影響香港經濟表現，惟另一方面，特朗普似乎也在尋求跟北京盡快展開磋商。說到底，特朗普身邊既有大批對華鷹派人物，但也有跟中國打交道做生意的世界首富馬斯克。特區政府有責任做好預案，應付不同情景。
地緣政治環境雖不利於港，但國家是香港最強的後盾。加快融入國家發展大局，積極借助大灣區之力，可以為本港經濟升級轉型，注入更強大動力。
與此同時，香港亦要在「聯通世界」方面下更多工夫。西方陣營不少國家都在加緊與中國接觸，確保有更多迴旋空間，應付特朗普施壓。香港與這些國家交往素來緊密，可以發揮超級聯繫人作用。
■/ Glossary 生字 /
(be) on tenterhooks：(to be) very anxious or excited while you are waiting to find out sth or see what will happen
go to pieces：to be so upset or afraid that you cannot manage to live or work normally
hawk：a person who advocates an aggressive or warlike policy, especially in foreign affairs