【明報專訊】THE CENTRAL ECONOMIC WORK CONFERENCE has set the economic guidelines for next year, emphasising the need to implement more proactive and impactful macro policies, focus on boosting domestic demand, stabilise the real estate and stock markets, and effectively guard against and resolve external conflicts.
The conference explicitly mentioned, as a policy package, raising the budget deficit ratio, reducing interest rates and the reserve requirement ratio at appropriate timings. It is expected that more heavyweight measures will be announced early next year. Foreseeing the uncertainties in Sino-US relations brought about by Trump's return to the White House next year, the conference emphasised expanding domestic demand and consumption on all fronts to cope with the possible turbulence and impacts from the external trade environment.
Convened annually in December by the CCP Politburo Standing Committee, the Central Economic Work Conference is the highest-ranked economic work conference of the central government. It is also the most authoritative wind vane for assessing the current economic situation and setting the agenda for the following year's macroeconomic policies. This year, the conference acknowledged candidly ''the deepened adverse impact brought about by changes in the external environment'' and the many difficulties and challenges facing the domestic economic operation. They mainly include the insufficient domestic demands, the difficulties in production and business faced by some enterprises, and the pressure on people to get employed and increase their income.
The conference has outlined ten key tasks for next year. The first is to ''vigorously boost consumption, improve investment efficiency, and expand domestic demand on all fronts'', while ''making scientific and technological innovation to drive the development of new quality productive forces and build a modernised industrial system'' comes only second. By contrast, the conference last year put scientific and technological innovation as the top task, followed by expanding domestic demand, highlighting the central government's judgement that priority adjustment is necessary.
The recently concluded Politburo meeting proposed implementing ''more proactive fiscal policies'' and ''moderately loose monetary policies'', while ''ramping up unconventional counter-cyclical adjustments''. The shift from pursuing a prudent monetary policy to a moderately loose one has been unprecedented in the last decade.
Regarding monetary policies, the Central Economic Work Conference specifically mentioned that the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates should be reduced at the proper time. Stressing that fiscal policies should be ''more proactive'', the conference clearly outlined the targets of raising the budget deficit ratio, increasing the spending of public funds, issuing ultra-long special treasury bonds, optimising the structure of fiscal expenditure, expanding the issuance and usage of local government special-purpose bonds, and so forth.
A noteworthy point is the conference's reiteration of maintaining the overall stability of the Renminbi exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, reflecting the central government will not let the currency devalue sharply without reason.
The conference stated the need to maintain steady economic growth next year. It is believed that the annual growth target of the central government will still be maintained at around 5% for the year to come. Regarding the expansion of domestic demand on all fronts, the conference suggested alleviating the burdens of low- and middle-income groups to boost their consuming capacity, raising the basic pensions for retired people to appropriate levels, and promoting large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in programmes. As for new quality productive forces, the conference particularly urged addressing the vicious internal competition and regulating behaviours of local governments and enterprises. This will also be a crucial focus for the next year.
明報社評 2024.12.13：中央定明年經濟部署 全方位擴內需成首務
中央經濟工作會議定調明年經濟方針，強調要實施更加積極有為的宏觀政策，着力提振內需，穩住樓市股市，有效防範化解外部衝擊。
會議明確提到要提高財政赤字率、適時減息降準，打好政策組合拳，預料明年初將有更多重磅措施出台。明年特朗普重返白宮，為中美關係帶來更多變數，會議強調全方位擴大國內需求及消費，以應對外貿環境可能出現的波瀾與衝擊。
中央經濟工作會議每年12月由中共中央政治局召開，是中央每年最高級別的經濟工作會議，也是判斷當下經濟形勢和定調翌年宏觀經濟政策最權威的風向標。今年經濟工作會議不諱言，「當前外部環境變化帶來的不利影響加深」，國家經濟運行仍面臨不少困難和挑戰，主要是內需不足，部分企業生產經營困難，群眾就業增收面臨壓力。
會議提到明年要抓好十大重點任務，第一項就是「大力提振消費、提高投資效益，全方位擴大國內需求」，第二項才是「以科技創新引領新質生產力發展，建設現代化產業體系」，相比之下，去年會議則是以科技創新為首，擴大內需為次，突顯中央認為有需要調整任務優次。
日前落幕的中央政治局會議表示要實施「更加積極的財政政策」、「適度寬鬆的貨幣政策」、「加強超常規逆周期調節」，當中貨幣政策由穩健轉向適度寬鬆，是近十年所未有。
今次中央經濟工作會議，貨幣政策方面，具體提到要適時降準降息，財政政策方面則強調「更加給力」，明確指出要提高財政赤字率、加大財政支出強度、增加發行超長期特別國債、優化財政支出結構、增加地方政府專項債券發行使用等。
值得留意是，經濟工作會議重申，保持人民幣匯率在合理均衡水平上的基本穩定，反映中央不會貿然讓人民幣大幅貶值。
經濟工作會議表示，明年要保持經濟穩定增長。5%左右的全年經濟增長，相信仍是中央來年目標。全方位擴大內需方面，會議提到要減輕中低收入群負擔從而提升消費能力、適當提高退休人員基本養老金、加力實施大規模設備更新及消費品以舊換新。發展新質生產力方面，會議特別提到要綜合整治「內捲式」競爭、規範地方政府和企業行為。這也是明年一個重要看點。
■/ Glossary 生字 /
macroeconomic：connected with large economic systems, such as those of whole countries or areas of the world
prudent：sensible and careful when you make judgements and decisions; avoiding unnecessary risks
alleviate：to make sth less severe