【明報專訊】THE PAST WEEKEND saw the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit closing, and between President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden, possibly their last head-of-state meeting. This year's APEC summit was held under the looming shadow of Donald Trump's imminent return to the White House. As Trump has stated that he will use tariffs again to fulfil his pledge to "make America great again", the international community widely believes that "Trump 2.0" will pursue trade protectionism more radically than before, adding instability and uncertainty to the global economy amid the feeblest growth period in nearly 30 years.
It was the third APEC summit held in Peru since its founding in 1989. Peru was also where the APEC sounded the alarm about Trump for the first time. In November 2016, an APEC summit was held in Lima right after Trump was first elected US president. In their summit declaration that year, APEC leaders clearly stated that they resisted all forms of trade protectionism, deeply underlining their worry about Trump's populist "America First" credo.
Held under the theme of "Empower, Include, Grow", the APEC summit this year concluded with a declaration noting that areas such as global trade, environment and climate are facing unprecedented and rapid changes, making multilateral cooperation even more important. In the context of Trump's looming return, their stance particularly carried a practical significance and specificity.
The summit also mentioned pushing forth the global energy transition, distantly echoing the UN climate negotiations underway in Azerbaijan. Another shared concern among countries is whether the US will irresponsibly withdraw from the Paris Agreement again, holding back global decarbonisation efforts.
"Trump 2.0" was also, inevitably, a hidden topic in the bilateral meeting between Xi and Biden on the sidelines of the APEC summit. Xi reiterated "no change" four times when he described China's fundamental attitude regarding Sino-US relations, implying that currently the biggest variable detrimental to the engagement between the two countries would be from the US.
Trump has not only issued the "pre-notice" of 60% tariffs on Chinese imports, but also pointed his tariff gun at other trade partners, threatening to impose tariffs of up to 20% on all foreign products. While emerging economies in the APEC region all face the risk of rising trade barriers, export-oriented ones like South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and Mexico, which neighbours the US, will bear the brunt of it.
Trump's unilateral ideology challenges the effective operations of international institutions and multilateral organisations. If countries handle trade and economic affairs in disarray, the cornerstone of international cooperation will surely be eroded, fragmenting the global governance architecture. This will also intensify the collaboration challenges of tackling global issues such as climate change and public health.
The G20 summit is convened on Monday and Tuesday in Brazil right after the APEC summit closed, under the theme of "Building a Just World and a Sustainable Planet". As the US veers back towards unilateralism, the international community should make even better use of the various multilateral cooperation mechanisms to seek stability in uncertainty and say no to irresponsible leaders of major powers.
明報社評2024.11.18：特朗普陰影罩APEC峰會 面對不負責任領袖要說不
亞太經濟合作組織（APEC）峰會周末落幕，國家主席習近平與美國總統拜登也進行了相信是兩人最後一次的元首會談。特朗普即將重返白宮，成為籠罩今次峰會的陰影。特朗普表明將再次以關稅為手段，兌現其「讓美國再次偉大」主張，國際輿論普遍認為，「特朗普2.0」會更激進地推行貿易保護主義，為處於近30年最疲軟增長期的全球經濟，增添不穩定與不確定性。
自1989年創立以來，APEC峰會已是第三次在秘魯舉辦，而秘魯也是APEC首次發布「特朗普警報」的地點。2016年11月，APEC峰會在利馬舉行，適逢特朗普首次當選美國總統，當年峰會宣言明確提出，反對任何形式的貿易保護主義，深刻體現了對特朗普「美國優先」民粹綱領的憂慮。
今年峰會主題定為「賦能、包容、增長」，會後宣言指出全球貿易、環境、氣候等領域，正面臨前所未有的急劇變化，多邊合作更加重要。在特朗普回朝的陰影下，這些立場更具現實意義與針對性。
峰會也談及推動全球能源轉型，與正在阿塞拜疆舉行的聯合國氣候變化談判遙相呼應。各國當前共同面對的另一擔憂，是美國會否再次不負責任地退出《巴黎氣候協定》，給全球減排努力拖後腿。
習近平與拜登在APEC峰會期間舉行雙邊會晤，「特朗普2.0」也是繞不開的潛台詞。習近平用4個「沒有變」描述中方對中美關係的基本態度，也揭示了當前破壞兩國交往的最大變數來自美國。
特朗普不僅「預告」對華徵收60%關稅，還把關稅大炮瞄準其他貿易伙伴，威脅要對所有外國商品徵收最高達到20%的關稅。APEC區內一眾新興經濟體面臨貿易壁壘升高的風險，韓國、新加坡、台灣，以及毗鄰美國的墨西哥等外向型經濟體首當其衝。
特朗普的單邊主義思維，對國際機構與多邊組織的有效運作構成挑戰，而當各國在處理貿易和經濟事務時各自為政，國際合作的基石亦必遭到侵蝕，全球治理體系趨於碎片化，還會增加合作應對氣候變化、公共衛生等全球挑戰的難度。
APEC峰會結束後，G20峰會緊接周一及周二在巴西召開，主題是「構建公正世界和可持續星球」。美國重走單邊主義歧路，國際社會更應善用各種多邊合作機制，在不確定性中尋求穩定的力量，向不負責任大國領袖說不。
■ Glossary 生字 /
feeblest : weakest
credo : a set of beliefs
bear the brunt of sth : to receive the main force of sth unpleasant