【明報專訊】SUBSEQUENT TO Donald Trump's comeback to the White House, a change in US domestic and foreign policies will inevitably bring more uncertainties to the world. It is widely believed that Trump will repeat his old tactics, including trade wars, to hinder China's development and coerce other countries into granting more favours to the US. However, China and Europe have certain experience in dealing with Trump and are also armed with more tools and strategies to cope with a trade war.
Trump's economic proposals are laden with many self-contradictions. In particular, the more intense "maximum pressure" is imposed during a trade war, the stronger the destructive backlash to the US will be. The best stratagem to deal with Trump's trade war threats is to keep the shirt on and plan well before actions.
The international community is widely concerned about Trump's handling of wars between Russia and Ukraine and in the Middle East after he takes office. As Trump has repeatedly criticised the Biden administration for giving hefty financial aid to Ukraine and pledged to broker a prompt ceasefire for the Russo-Ukrainian war once he is in power, it is expected that he will pressure the Kyiv authorities to make concessions on territorial issues.
As for the Mideast, Trump takes an even firmer pro-Israel and anti-Iran stance than Biden and Harris. The impact of his election victory on the geopolitical situations in Europe and the Mideast has to be watched closely.
In 2018, Trump launched a trade war against China and imposed tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods. The measures have remained rather than being cancelled under Biden. In Trump's comeback election campaign this year, blanket tariffs are exactly one of his key economic proposals. He threatened to impose a 10% tariff on all US imports across the board. For imports from China, the tariff will even reach 60%.
Priding itself on freedom, America has always upheld free trade. If the across-the-board tariff becomes a reality, that will equal a total denial of free trade. Trump always describes new tariffs as "gain at no cost", but the cost of tariff hikes would eventually be paid by US consumers.
According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics in the US, if Trump's tariff measures are implemented, each US family will have an additional expenditure of US$1700 to US$2600 per year. The lower the income, the greater the burden. Trump's tariff measures seem to help protect domestic manufacturers, but in fact will trigger inflation and increase the burden on US consumers, especially salaried people and the lower class.
Of course, for Trump, the trade war is a bargaining tool to a certain extent. As he is fond of playing the trick of "maximum pressure", the "60% tariffs" threat may only be an act of extreme haggling and not necessarily be true.
Over the past few years, China has made some economic preparations and adjustments to enhance its capability of dealing with a trade war with the US. For example, it has imported more agricultural products like beans and corn from Brazil in recent years. If a trade war does occur, China will have more room to implement countermeasures against US agricultural products. Furthermore, the "Provisions on the Unreliable Entity List" regime introduced by Beijing in recent years and its export control policies can also become countering tools to fight a trade war.
明報社評2024.11.08：貿易戰水來土掩 謀定後動不畏懼
特朗普再次入主白宮，美國內政外交改弦易轍，無可避免為全球帶來更多不確定性。外界普遍相信特朗普將重施故技，以貿易戰等手段，試圖阻慢中國發展，以及脅迫各國給予美國更多甜頭，然而對於如何應付特朗普，無論中國還是歐洲已有一定經驗，也有更多工具及策略應對貿易戰。
特朗普的經濟主張，存在不少內在矛盾，尤其是貿易戰「極限施壓」力度愈大，對美國的反噬破壞也愈大。冷靜沉着看待特朗普貿易戰威脅，謀定而後動，才是上策。
特朗普上台後，如何處理俄烏及中東戰事，備受國際社會關注。特朗普一再批評拜登政府重金援烏，承諾一旦上台會讓俄烏短期內停戰，外界預料特朗普將逼基輔當局在領土問題上讓步。
中東方面，特朗普「親以色列反伊朗」態度，比拜登及賀錦麗尤有甚之。特朗普上台牽動歐洲與中東地緣政治形勢，情况需要密切關注。
2018年，特朗普對華發動貿易戰，向數以千億美元計的中國貨加徵關稅，即使拜登上台後，相關措施依然保留，沒有撤銷。今年大選特朗普捲土重來，關稅措施加碼，正是其中一項重要經濟主張。特朗普威脅要向所有進口美國的貨品，一律加徵一成關稅，針對中國貨的關稅，更將高達六成。
美國標榜自由，一直提倡自由貿易，所有進口貨品加徵關稅若然成真，相當於全面否定自由貿易。特朗普常形容加徵關稅「有賺無賠」，可是加徵關稅的成本代價，最終都是由美國消費者埋單。
美國彼德森研究所指出，如果特朗普的關稅措施成真，每個美國家庭一年將額外增加介乎1700至2600美元開支，收入愈低，負擔愈大。特朗普的關稅措施，表面上似乎有助保護本地製造業，實際卻一定會刺激通脹，加重美國消費者特別是工薪族及低下階層的負擔。
當然，對特朗普而言，貿易戰某程度也是討價還價手段。特朗普愛搞「極限施壓」，不排除「加徵六成關稅」只是開天索價手段，口講未必為實。
過去數年中國所作的一些經濟部署和調整，都提高了應付美國貿易戰的能力。舉例說，中國近年更多從巴西進口大豆、玉米等農作物，真的打起貿易戰，中國對美國農產品實施反制措施，將有更大空間。另外，中國近年引入的「不可靠實體清單」制度，以及出口管制措施，也可成為貿易戰反制工具。
■ Glossary 生字 /
stratagem : a trick or plan that you use to gain an advantage or to trick an opponent
haggle : to argue with sb in order to reach an agreement, especially about the price of sth
countermeasure : a course of action taken to protect against sth that is considered bad or dangerous