【明報專訊】THE MAINLAND GOVERNMENT has rolled out stimulus measures to reinvigorate the economy, sparking a surge in the mainland and Hong Kong stock markets on the eve of National Day. The turnovers of the two stock markets have also seen record highs.
The mainland and Hong Kong stock markets have bounced back from a trough recently. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index has risen for five consecutive days. Having closed over 700 points, or 3.55%, higher on last Friday's futures settlement day, it gained over 500 points (an increase of 2.4%) and closed at 21,133 points yesterday (30 September), the highest level in nearly 20 months.
On the mainland, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen for nine consecutive trading days. It surged past the 3,300-point mark yesterday, rising by around 8.1% and reaching the highest point in nearly 17 months. The Shenzhen Component Index has also risen for five consecutive days, closing more than 10% higher yesterday. A total of 2,700 stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen jumped by over 10%, and trading of over 700 stocks was suspended after they had risen by the maximal percentage allowed.
Summing up the market situation in September, the Shanghai Stock Exchange rose by over 17% cumulatively, delivering the largest monthly increase in nearly ten years. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange even rose by 26%, the largest monthly increase ever. The Hang Seng Index rose by 13% last week, the biggest weekly rise since 16 October 1998. Over the entire month, it rose by nearly 17.5%. If compared with the low of 16,441 points in early August, the increase has been as high as 28%. The market can be said to be extremely bullish.
The most relevant reason for the upsurge in the mainland and Hong Kong stock markets over the past few trading days is undoubtedly the mainland government's economic stimulus measures introduced last week. Foreign institutional investors reassessed their bearish expectations for China's outlook, believing that a recovery in the Chinese stock markets is likely. The turnovers of the mainland and Hong Kong stock markets have shot up.
Following the record-breaking turnover of $445.7 billion recorded last Friday (27 September), Hong Kong stocks set another new record yesterday with a turnover of $505.8 billion. This marks a world of difference from the daily turnover of about $40 billion during the stock market downturn. Mainland China is the second-largest stock market in the world. The combined turnover on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges was even more astonishing yesterday, reaching a record high of nearly RMB 2.6 trillion.The sudden rise in the turnover of the Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets means a huge influx of funds.
Not only is the mainland's stimulus package more vigorous than the market expected, but the policies have also been implemented very swiftly. No sooner had the central government made its statement than the Guangzhou, Shanghai and Shenzhen governments announced on Sunday night (29 September) that they would lift or relax home purchase restrictions. As the new measures will coincide with the National Day Golden Week on the mainland, it is expected that they will give a fillip to property sales during the long holiday. Still, the mainland has an inventory of unsold properties so huge that it will take time to absorb, and market confidence cannot be restored overnight.
The mainland economy is in the throes of transformation. Problems such as weak domestic demand and high youth unemployment are not easy to tackle. Hong Kong's post-pandemic recovery has not been as good as expected, which is attributable not only to global and mainland economic factors but also to other problems, and the sluggish local retail market is merely one of them. Furthermore, as the US is about to elect a new president, the future development of Sino-US relations is uncertain, and geopolitical episodes can arise at any time. Since all this will affect the performance of the mainland and Hong Kong stock markets, investors must remain vigilant.
明報社評2024.10.01：全球資金大洗牌 股市火紅迎國慶
內地出招振興經濟，刺激內地香港股市國慶前夕大升，成交額齊創歷史紀錄。
內地與香港股市近日一洗頹風。香港方面，恒指連升5天，繼上周五期指結算日收市升逾700點後（升幅3.55%），昨天收市再升逾500點（升幅2.4%），報21,133點，創近20個月收市新高。
內地方面，上證指數連升9個交易日，昨天突破3300點關口，創近17個月新高，升幅約8.1%。深證成分指數亦五連升，昨天收市升幅超過一成。滬深兩市共2700隻股份升逾10%，超過700股漲停。
總結9月份市况，滬股累計升逾17%，創近10年最大單月升幅，深證升26%，更是歷來最大單月升幅。恒指上周累升13%，是1998年10月16日以來最大一周升幅，以全月計則升近17.5%；若從8月初低位16,441點計算，升幅更達28%，可謂牛氣冲天。
內地香港股市過去數個交易日大漲，最直接的原因，當然是內地上周出招振經濟。原先看淡中國的外資大戶，紛紛改變態度，認為中國股市復蘇可期，內地香港股市成交量急增。
港股繼上周五錄得4457億元的破紀錄成交，昨天再刷新紀錄，達到5058億元，跟之前股市低迷時一天才得400億元左右的成交量，不可同日而語。內地是全球第二大股票市場，昨天滬深兩市成交量就更驚人，合計直逼2.6萬億元人民幣，同創歷史新高。港滬深股市成交量急增，意味大量資金湧入。
今次內地出手刺激經濟，除了力度超出市場預期，政策落地速度也相當快，中央話音甫落，廣州、上海和深圳周日晚即分別宣布，取消或放寬樓市限購措施，恰逢內地十一國慶黃金周，預料對長假期房地產銷售，會有一定刺激作用，然而內地樓盤庫存量巨大，需要時間消化，恢復市場信心也不可能一蹴而就。
內地經濟正處於轉型時期，內需不振、青年失業率高等問題，並不容易處理；香港疫後復蘇不似如期，除了外圍及內地經濟因素，也存在其他問題，本地零售市道不振，不過是其中之一。另外，美國即將選出新總統，中美關係未來走向存在變數，地緣政治風波可以隨時再起，影響內地與香港股市表現，投資者必須保持警惕。
■ Glossary 生字 /
reinvigorate : to give new energy or strength to sth/sb
trough : a period of time when the level of sth is low, especially a time when a business or the economy is not growing
upsurge : a sudden large increase in sth