【明報專訊】A NUMBER OF MAINLAND GOVERNMENT AGENCIES have joined forces to launch a multi-pronged approach to stimulate the economy. The measures include a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR), a cut in the interest rates on existing mortgages, and lowering the minimum down-payment ratio for second-home buyers, etc.
The stimulus measures introduced by the mainland authorities this time are the strongest since the implosion of the mainland's real estate market. The mainland and Hong Kong stock markets closed much higher yesterday (24 September), showing that the market's initial response to the new measures has been positive.
This reduction in the RRR by 50 basis points means that banks will have additional liquidity of around RMB 1 trillion for lending. Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC), has also hinted that the RRR could be reduced by another 25 to 50 basis points in the fourth quarter, meaning that the PBOC might inject a maximum of RMB 2 trillion of liquidity into the market. But it is noteworthy that these measures launched by the PBOC are only monetary easing measures. They are not quantitative easing exercises involving massive purchases of bonds or "money printing". This shows that the authorities' principle of not flooding the market with money has not changed.
While mainland China's exports are strong, domestic demand remains low. Mainland economic data for August such as retail sales and fixed investment released earlier was all lower than market expectations. The growth rate was also slower than that in July. Recently, major foreign banks have lowered their forecasts for the Chinese economy, estimating that the annual growth will only be between 4.6% and 4.8%, thus missing the original target of 5%. The introduction of the latest stimulus package on the mainland bears testimony to the authorities' determination to meet the target of a 5% growth rate, hoping to stabilise the confidence and expectations of all sides regarding the growth rate of the mainland.
The mainland authorities are highly concerned about the influx of funds into the bond market, as it reflects investors' lack of confidence in the property market, the stock market or even the economy. This time around, the mainland has taken measures to boost the stock market. From encouraging buybacks and increasing stock holdings to issuing guidelines requiring listed companies to manage market value properly and pay proper regard to investor returns, all this has had the effect of propping up stock prices and attracting money to flow into the stock market. This has also been the approach taken by Japan and South Korea to stimulate the stock market in recent years.
The market has been longing for the mainland government's "violent" moves to prop up the markets. Such an approach would involve a quantitative easing policy to print money and huge spending as a radical fiscal policy to stimulate demand. However, having learned a lesson from the RMB 4 trillion rescue plan launched after the financial tsunami, it is obvious that the mainland authorities have reservations about flooding the market with money.
According to foreign media reports earlier this year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggested that the Chinese government solve the problem of unfinished buildings by providing financial support, which would cost nearly US$1 trillion. But China rejected the idea, arguing that the problem should be resolved in a market-oriented way. Its rationale is that the central government's direct intervention and effective bailout of the industry would only create a moral hazard. In the end, the real estate industry might return to its old ways and an unsustainable path.
It takes time to tackle the issues of the mainland real estate industry. The authorities' current strategy is to accelerate the development of emerging industries. The likelihood of monetary and fiscal policies flooding the market with money is still small.
明報社評 2024.09.25：內地「組合拳」刺激經濟 決心「保五」盼穩定預期
內地多個部委攜手推出「組合拳」刺激經濟，包括下調存款準備金率0.5個百分點、調低存量房貸利率，以及降低二套房「最低首付比例」等。
今次內地推出的刺激經濟措施，是內房問題引爆以來，力度最重的一次。內地及本港股市昨天大幅上揚，反映市場對新措施初步反應正面。
今次降準50個基點，意味銀行將多大約1萬億元用作借貸，人行行長潘功勝還暗示，第四季存款準備金率有機會再下調25至50個基點，即人行最多有可能向市場注入2萬億元流動性。然而值得留意的是，人行這些措施只屬放寬銀根，並非大搞量化寬鬆大舉買債「印鈔」，反映當局未有改變不會大水漫灌的原則。
內地出口強勁，但內需仍然低迷，早前公布的8月內地零售、固定投資等經濟數據皆差過市場預期，增速亦較7月放緩。外資大行近期紛紛下調中國經濟預測，估計全年增長只有4.6%至4.8%，意即無法達到原定5%目標。內地推出一籃子刺激措施，反映當局「保五」決心，盼可穩定各方對內地增長速度的信心及預期。
資金湧入債市是內地當局非常關心的一個現象，因為這反映投資者對樓市、股市以至經濟都缺乏信心。這次內地出招提振股市，無論是鼓勵回購和增持股票，還是發布指引要求上市公司做好市值管理、重視投資者回報等，都有支持股價的效果，有利吸引資金流入股市，這亦是近年日韓催谷股市的方法。
市場一直憧憬內地「暴力」救市，一邊奉行量化寬鬆貨幣政策大舉印鈔，一邊大灑銀彈，以激進的財政政策刺激需求，然而汲取過金融海嘯後4萬億元救市的經驗教訓，內地當局對於「大水漫灌」明顯有保留。
今年初外媒曾報道，國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）曾建議，中國政府可提供財政支持，解決爛尾樓問題，估計耗資接近1萬億美元，惟中方拒絕，認為應以市場化方式解決，中央直接出手，變相包底打救，只會造成道德風險，到頭來房地產業又可能故態復萌，重走不可持續舊路。
內房問題需要時間消化，當局目前策略是加快推動發展新興產業，貨幣政策與財政政策齊齊大水漫灌的機會，目前看來仍然不大。
/ Glossary生字 /
testimony：a thing that shows that sth else exists or is true
bailout：an act of giving money to a company, a foreign country, etc that has very serious financial problems
likelihood：the chance of sth happening; how likely sth is to happen