【明報專訊】THE US FEDERAL RESERVE (hereinafter the Fed) has announced to cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage points, ushering in a cycle of interest rate cuts. On the same day of the announcement, many banks in Hong Kong also announced a cut in the Hong Kong dollar prime rate of 0.25 percentage points. This marks the first rate reduction over four years in the United States. While the rate of half a percentage point is in line with market expectations, it is undoubtedly rather strong for the start of a rate cut cycle.
The Fed's latest rate cut marks the official end of the rate hike cycle of the past two and a half years. To curb soaring inflation, the Fed began a rate hike cycle in March 2022. Within less than a year and a half, it raised the interest rate eleven times. The federal funds rate rose sharply from near zero to between 5.25% and 5.5%. Then inflation gradually receded. The latest data shows that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 2.5% in August from a year earlier. It was the smallest increase since February 2021.
An interest rate cut was already a foregone conclusion before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this month. The question was the scope of the cut. Not long ago, Fed officials were still hinting at a 25-basis-point cut, but this obviously did not chime in with investors' expectations. On the eve of the FOMC meeting, the interest rate futures market showed that investors had overwhelmingly wagered on a 50-basis-point cut. Had the actual rate cut been smaller than that, financial market turmoil could have been triggered. From investors' point of view, the Fed has listened to their good counsel. However, it can also be said that the Fed has succumbed to market pressure.
The Fed has a so-called "dual mandate", namely to stable prices and promote maximum employment. Over the past few years, the Fed's focus has been obviously on inflation. The latest interest rate statement reflects the Fed's view that it is time to "recalibrate" monetary policy and strengthen "job protection" so as to prevent a hard landing of the economy. The Fed will have two more FOMC meetings this year. The interest rate futures market shows that investors are expecting further cuts amounting to 0.75 percentage points this year.
The US economy grew strongly in the first half of the year. Some economists believe that the rise in the unemployment rate in recent months is only due to the influx of immigrants and the increase in the labour force, and recession is not a worry at the moment. While retail sales growth slowed to 0.1% in August, it still exceeded market expectations. But there are also views that the US economy has many hidden worries, as credit card debts and defaults have risen to the highest levels in more than a decade. People's spending power is weakening. Many large retailers have repeatedly warned that consumers are becoming increasingly cautious in spending. A high-interest-rate environment is a worry to the global economy, so there is a common hope that interest rates will fall as soon as possible. However, there are still many uncertain factors in the US economy, and it remains uncertain how fast the interest rate cuts will be made. Investors need to remain cautious.
Over the past few years, the US dollar has been strengthening thanks to high US interest rates, leading to an influx of funds into the US. As the US interest rate cut cycle has started, the US dollar will weaken, and the flows of global capital will be reshuffled. It is expected that some capital will return to Asia and emerging markets. That said, it is worthy to note that the weakening of the US dollar will also be advantageous to the US itself.
明報社評2024.09.20：避免美國經濟硬着陸 儲局重手減息保就業
美國聯儲局宣布減息半厘，為減息周期揭開序幕，本港多間銀行同日亦宣布，下調港元最優惠利率0.25厘。今次是美國4年多以來首度減息，半厘的幅度，雖說符合市場期望，但作為減息周期的開局，力度無疑偏重。
今次聯儲局減息，標誌過去兩年半的加息周期正式告一段落。2022年3月，聯儲局為了遏抑通脹狂飈，展開加息周期，於不足1年半的時間內，先後11次加息，聯邦基金利率由近乎零的水平，急升至5.25%至5.5%的水平，之後通脹徐徐回落。最新數據顯示，8月份美國消費者價格指數（CPI）按年上升2.5%，是2021年2月以來最小漲幅。
聯儲局本月議息，減息決定早已板上釘釘，問題僅在於減幅。不久前，聯儲局官員仍放風減息1/4厘，可是這顯然不符投資者期望。議息前夕，利率期貨市場顯示投資者一面倒押注減息半厘，倘若實際減幅不似預期，有可能觸發金融市場動盪。從投資者角度，聯儲局今次決定是「從善如流」；當然，換個角度看，也可說是聯儲局向市場壓力屈服。
聯儲局向有所謂「雙重使命」（Dual Mandate），即控制通脹以及促進就業，之前幾年的重點，明顯放在通脹方面，今次議息聲明反映聯儲局認為貨幣政策是時候「再平衡」，加強「保就業」，避免經濟硬着陸。聯儲局今年尚有兩次議息會議，利率期貨市場顯示，投資者憧憬今年再減3/4厘。
美國經濟上半年增長強勁，有經濟學家認為，失業率近月上升，只是由於移民湧入及勞動人口增加，當下並無衰退之憂，雖然8月份零售增長放緩只得0.1%，但仍勝過市場預期，然而另一邊廂亦有意見認為，美國經濟隱憂甚多，信用卡債務及違約均見上升，達到十多年高位，民眾消費力正在減弱，很多大型零售商亦再三提及，消費者花錢轉趨審慎。高息環境困擾環球經濟，各方都希望息口早日回落，只是美國經濟不明朗因素仍多，減息步伐並不確定，投資者需要保持審慎。
過去數年美息高企美元走強，大量資金流向美國。隨着美國減息周期展開，美元轉弱，全球資金流重新洗牌，預料會有部分資金回流亞洲及新興市場，然而值得留意是，美元轉弱對美國也有好處。
■ Glossary 生字 /
usher in : to be the beginning of sth new or to make sth new begin
foregone conclusion : if sth is a foregone conclusion, its result is certain, even though it has not happened yet