【明報專訊】THE US PRESIDENTIAL RACE has become a white-hot match. Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, the two presidential candidates, have faced off at a television debate in which Harris has obviously performed better. Since the Democratic National Convention last month, Harris's momentum has ebbed while Trump has gained some ground in polls. Their approval ratings have become neck and neck in the seven swing states. Although Harris's victory in the debate was undoubtedly a shot in her arm, its actual effect on the race has yet to be observed.
This presidential race is a battle between two sets of narratives. The Democratic Party claims that Trump is endangering American democracy and is undependable, while Trump argues that Harris is old wine in new bottles and cannot be trusted to lick the economy and people's livelihood into shape. Ultimately, the answer to which of the two will occupy the White House depends on who the American voters regard as more trustworthy.
With the US general elections to be held on 5 November, the TV debate yesterday (11 September) was the first face-to-face square-up between Harris and Trump. CNN's snap poll on the same day showed that 63% of surveyed voters who had watched the debate thought that Harris had performed better. Only 37% regarded Trump as the better one. Many bookmakers' election odds also shifted towards Harris, with her chances of winning soaring above 50%, overtaking Trump.
The contents of what the two said in the debate were in fact as expected. However, Harris managed to achieve two things: first, showing the temperament of a great leader; second, using the "goad tactic" to throw Trump into disarray. Showing poise and composure in her demeanour, Harris constantly kept her smile. By contrast, Trump was led by the nose and became increasingly agitated as the debate continued.
Harris described Trump as a criminal and taunted that Trump supporters left his campaign rallies early out of "exhaustion and boredom": these remarks aimed invariably at his egomaniac personality. Busy with self-defence, Trump was prodded into even citing an urban legend that illegal immigrants in Ohio were "eating the pets" of US people. That only gave Harris more chances of criticising him as untrustworthy.
Since Joe Biden was replaced by Harris as the presidential candidate, the Democrats have rapidly united around Harris to support her. In just a little more than a month, Harris's national support surpassed Trump's. However, one should note that her support has not surged further as expected. Instead, Trump's popularity has climbed back. Harris's win in the debate can at least interrupt the power of Trump's upswing.
The Democratic Party has painstakingly marketed Harris as the "Second Obama", stirring up the political passion of many Democratic supporters and young people. However, as freshness receds, some voters have begun to be concerned about the issue of Harris's "unclear profile". Harris had no significant performance during the four years as the vice president. Republican supporters have long doubted her capability to govern the nation. Recent polls also show that voters commonly believe Trump is more able in dealing with the economy and illegal immigrants. Although Harris was the winner of this debate, it is another question as to whether she can build up voters' confidence in her capability to govern.
明報社評2024.09.12：賀錦麗勝辯論添信心 特朗普回升氣勢受挫
美國總統大選白熱化，兩名總統候選人賀錦麗與特朗普展開電視辯論，論表現，賀錦麗明顯較佳。自上月民主黨大會以來，賀錦麗氣勢回軟，特朗普民望則有所回升，兩人在7個搖擺州支持度不相上下，賀錦麗勝出辯論，無疑有強心針的效果，然而對選情實際影響有多大，仍然有待觀察。
今次大選是兩套論述之爭，民主黨指特朗普危害美國民主、為人信不過，特朗普則指賀錦麗舊酒新瓶、搞好經濟民生不可信。兩人最終誰主白宮，還看美國選民認為哪方較為可信。
美國大選11月5日正式舉行，昨天電視辯論是賀錦麗與特朗普首次同場交鋒。有線電視新聞網絡（CNN）即日民調顯示，有看辯論的受訪選民，63%認為賀錦麗表現較佳，認為特朗普較佳者只有37%。美國多個大選賭盤紛紛顯示賀錦麗贏面上升突破五成，壓倒特朗普。
論辯論內容，兩人所說的其實都屬意料之內，然而賀錦麗成功做到兩點，一是展示出大將之風，一是以「激將法」打亂特朗普陣腳。賀錦麗表現落落大方，經常保持笑容。反觀特朗普則被牽着走，愈辯愈激動。
賀錦麗指特朗普是罪犯，又指其競選集會有支持者「嫌悶」提早離場等，無一不是針對特朗普自高自大的心理。特朗普忙於反駁自辯，連「俄亥俄州有非法移民把美國人的寵物烹煮來吃」的都市傳說也搬出來，讓賀錦麗有更多機會抨擊他不可信。
民主黨「換登」後，迅速團結起來力撐賀錦麗。短短一個多月間，賀錦麗全國支持者反超特朗普，然而值得留意的是，她的民望並未一如所料進一步上揚，反觀特朗普民望卻有所回升。賀錦麗這次辯論勝利，至少可以打窒特朗普回升中的氣勢。
民主黨將賀錦麗精心包裝成為「第二個奧巴馬」，激發民主黨支持者和不少年輕人的政治熱情，然而隨着新鮮感減退，部分選民開始關注賀錦麗「面目不清」的問題。賀錦麗擔任副總統4年，表現並不突出，共和黨支持者一直質疑其治國能力，新近民調亦顯示，選民普遍仍認為特朗普處理經濟和非法移民問題的能力較佳。今次辯論，賀錦麗是贏家，但能否建立起選民對其治國能力的信心，又是另一回事。
■ Glossary 生字 /
ebb : to become gradually weaker or less
lick (sth) into shape : to make sth more acceptable, organised or successful
goad (sb/sth) : to keep annoying sb/sth until they react