【明報專訊】The collapse of the US Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) has sent shockwaves throughout the industry. Within only a few days, three US banks collapsed or resorted to Federal Reserve aid in succession. As for SVB's UK arm, HSBC Holdings swooped in as a "white knight" to rescue it.
One major cause of SVB's downfall was the tumbling of US bond prices following the Fed's hasty interest rate hikes to tame inflation, which quickly eroded the value of SVB's US bond portfolio. Liquidity shortage rendered SVB unable to cope with a bank run. The possibility of more small- and medium-sized banks facing similar problems cannot be ruled out. The question of whether the crisis will escalate requires close monitoring. Whether the incident will affect the Fed's interest rate policy is also a matter of concern.
HSBC's profits mainly come from the Greater China market, which includes Hong Kong. However, its acquisition of SVB's British arm this time comes across as a move to fulfil a "national mission" for the British government. Behind the symbolic acquisition cost of £1, it turns out that HSBC also has to inject an extra capital of £2 billion, meaning that it has to shoulder risks without any immediate benefit in sight. It is arguable whether such a deal is worthwhile.
SVB mainly served technology companies, start-ups and venture capital firms as America's 16th largest bank. There were no obvious signs prior to the bank's collapse, which came suddenly at astounding speed. In the middle of last week, after news came out that SVB had to raise funds to cover a significant loss, its stock price took a nosedive. As SVB was facing insolvency, the regulators ordered its closure last Friday (10 March), making it the largest bank failure in the US since the 2008 financial tsunami.
After the financial tsunami, the Fed adopted the "money printing" measure of quantitative easing to prop up the market. Silicon Valley start-ups benefited from the extremely low interest rate environment, and it was not too difficult for them to take out loans. After the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, the Fed injected liquidity into the market even more aggressively. Silicon Valley start-ups obtained huge loans, and many of them were deposited into banks.
But in mid-2021, the US started reopening amid the pandemic. The inflationary pressure that followed was underestimated by the Fed at first. It only began to increase interest rates in haste in March last year. Silicon Valley start-ups began needing to withdraw money from their bank accounts continuously to meet all sorts of expenses. Meanwhile, SVB had previously invested a large sum of customer deposits in long-term US Treasury bonds, thinking that it was playing safe. However, the bonds ended up plummeting because of the rapid interest rate hikes, resulting in a sharp depreciation in the bank's asset prices. When its customers learnt that SVB was under funding pressure, they sped up withdrawing money from their accounts. The bank could not withstand the run and finally collapsed. It is still a mystery how many small- and medium-sized banks have similar modes of operation as SVB. There might be even more bank failures coming up.
SVB's subsidiary in the UK was also facing bankruptcy. After the joint intervention of the Bank of England and the UK Treasury, HSBC announced on Monday (13 March) that it will buy SVB UK at the symbolic cost of £1. But on top of that, foreign media has revealed that HSBC has to inject an estimated capital of at least £2 billion into SVB UK to keep it afloat. If SVB UK collapses, it will hurt the British technology industry and may also increase the liquidity risks of small UK banks. To put it bluntly, HSBC's acquisition is to serve the national interests of the UK.
After the successive bank failures in the US, investors speculate that the Fed will likely stop raising interest rates soon. Attention is on whether inflation will return. While curbing inflation, the Fed has to support economic growth and keep the banking system stable. A close eye should be kept on whether the future interest rate policy will frequently vacillate between these two goals.
明報社評 2023.03.15：矽谷銀行爆煲掀波瀾 匯控收購為英國利益
美國矽谷銀行（SVB）「爆煲」掀波瀾，短短數天先後有3間銀行倒閉又或要聯儲局施援，至於矽谷銀行英國分支，則由匯控當「白武士」拯救。
矽谷銀行倒閉，一大原因是聯儲局急步加息遏通脹，導致美債大跌，銀行持有的美債資產價值急貶，流動性不足無法應付擠提，不排除還有更多中小型銀行面臨類似問題，危機會否升級，需要密切留意；事態會否影響聯儲局息口政策，同樣惹人關注。
匯控利潤主要來自包括香港在內的大中華市場，今次收購矽谷銀行在英分支，卻大有為英國政府執行「國家任務」意味，1英鎊象徵式收購背後，原來還要額外注資20億英鎊，未見即時好處卻要先背起風險，這樣的交易是否化算，值得商榷。
矽谷銀行客戶主要是科技、初創及風險投資公司，是全美第16大銀行。矽谷銀行爆煲，之前並無明顯徵兆，來得又快又突然，上周中傳出巨額虧損需要集資後，股價開始急瀉，由於資不抵債，周五遭監管部門下令關閉，成為2008年金融海嘯後美國最大宗銀行倒閉事件。
金融海嘯後，聯儲局量化寬鬆「印鈔」托市，矽谷初創企業受惠於超低息環境，借貸並無多少難度，及至2020年疫情爆發，聯儲局更猛力向市場「泵水」，矽谷初創企業取得大量融資，不少都存入了銀行。
2021年中，美國疫下重開，聯儲局最初低估隨之而來的通脹壓力，去年3月才開始急步加息，矽谷初創開始要從戶口不斷提款應付各類開支；另一邊廂，矽谷銀行之前把大量客戶存款，投資於美國政府長債，以為這是穩陣做法，惟息口急升令美債大跌，銀行資產價值急貶，當客戶得悉矽谷銀行有集資壓力後，更加急於從戶口提款，銀行不堪擠提，終以倒閉收場。跟矽谷銀行有相似操作的中小型銀行，究竟有多少間，仍是一個謎，可能還有更多銀行會倒閉。
矽谷銀行在英國子公司亦面臨破產。英倫銀行與英國財政部協商介入，匯控周一宣布以1英鎊的象徵式代價，收購英國矽谷銀行。外媒披露，匯控原來還要給英國矽谷銀行注資，以維持其業務運作如常，金額估計至少要20億英鎊。英國矽谷銀行一旦倒閉會打擊當地科技產業，並有可能增加英國小型銀行的流動性風險。匯控的收購行動說白了就是為英國國家利益服務。
美國接連有銀行倒閉，投資者猜測聯儲局快將停止加息。通脹會否復熾，惹人關注。聯儲局既要遏抑通脹，又要支持經濟增長、確保銀行體系穩定，未來息口政策，會否頻頻在這兩個目標之間搖擺，需要密切留意。
/ Glossary生字 /
nosedive：a sudden steep fall or drop; a situation where sth suddenly becomes worse or begins to fail
afloat：(of a business, etc.) having enough money to pay debts; able to survive
bluntly：in a very direct way, without trying to be polite or kind