【明報專訊】Following the opening of the National People's Congress, the world's attention is on the Government Work Report, as the trend of China's economy not only concerns the nation's policies and the lives of 1.4 billion people, but also affects the speed of growth of the global economy.
Outgoing premier Li Keqiang gave a comprehensive summary of the achievements in the current administration's five-year term and his ten-year tenure. The highlights are the various measures taken during the several years when the COVID pandemic wrought havoc, such as tax and fee reduction, subsidies to stabilise employment, consumption stimulation and foreign trade support. The results have been stellar and obvious to all.
Last year was the year the pandemic hit the hardest. Shenzhen, Shanghai and Guangzhou, the three megacities that are of huge importance to China's economy, were successively locked down for a long time. As factories shut down, exports were hurt, but the national economy still grew by 3%. The total volume of import and export of goods went through the 40 trillion-yuan mark and grew by 7.7%, exceeding expectations. As war is raging internationally, food and oil prices are soaring, and the inflation rates of major countries in the world have jumped to 40-year highs. In China, however, domestic prices have only risen by 2%. The financial burden on nationals has not been affected, which is an important pillar of the general sense of stability.
Although China has overcome an unprecedented crisis unscathed, the impact of the severe economic setback should not be underestimated. The official unemployment rate of 5.5% is based on surveys in cities. In fact, the figure does not include the huge numbers of workers who could no longer sustain themselves in big cities and have returned to rural areas. There has been a massive wave of closures of small- and medium-sized enterprises, especially retail stores and businesses in the catering industry, and those still carrying on are struggling. It can be said that all businesses are waiting for a recovery. Meanwhile, although the government has adopted policies of cutting taxes and deferring payments for social security and medical insurance, sustaining them any further is impossible. This year, business operators will need to pay taxes and other expenses that are due, which will add to their already heavy burden.
This year's economy will face difficulties on both internal and external fronts. The Government Work Report proposed that the deficit rate be controlled at 3%, which is only a slight increase from last year's 2.8%. Local government special-purpose bonds will be limited to 3.8 trillion yuan, which is somewhat higher than 3.65 trillion yuan last year. When the revenue source is not greatly increased, setting a 5% economic growth target is in line with the central government's principle of "prioritising stability while pursuing progress". The public is eager to know how it will be achieved.
The Government Work Report puts a priority on restoring and expanding consumption and stabilising big-ticket consumption. Big-ticket consumption mainly relies on property and car sales. The real estate industry had already exploded, and the three-year pandemic had become the last straw that breaks the camel's back. Lacking rigid demand, the market needs clearer signals about how recovery can be achieved.
This year's Government Work Report does not detail specific plans for economic development in the coming year, which might be due to the change of leadership. However, international organisations are confident that the goal of 5% growth will be achieved this year. Still, the numerous factors that threaten economic development will dampen consumer and investor confidence. The various favourable factors, in contrast, have not been introduced in detail by the different departments of the central government, nor has there been a "spectacular launch" of specific economic stimulus measures. All these need to be unveiled by the new administration as soon as possible.
明報社評2023.03.06：疫後年增長5%穩中求進 具體執行看新一屆政府
全國人大會議開鑼，全球目光投向政府工作報告，因為中國經濟的走勢，不但關係到14億人口的國計民生，還會影響全球經濟的增長速度。
即將卸任的李克強總理，全面總結了本屆5年及任內10年的工作成績，其中突出在疫情肆虐幾年當中，各項減稅降費的措施、穩定就業崗位的補助、刺激消費以及扶持外貿的舉措等等，成績斐然，有目共睹。
去年是疫情影響最大的一年，深圳、上海和廣州3個對全國經濟舉足輕重的特大城市，先後遭長時間封控，工廠停工，出口受挫，但全國經濟增長率仍然有3%，貨物進出口總額突破40萬億元人民幣大關，取得7.7%增長，更是超出預期。國際烽煙四起，糧價油價急升，全球主要國家通脹率達到40年來新高，國內物價升幅只有2%，國民負擔未受影響，這是人心穩定的重要支撐。
雖然面臨前所未有的危機仍能安然渡過，但經濟受到重挫的影響不能低估，官方公布的失業率5.5%，是城市調查的數據，實際上大量工人在大城市無以為繼返回鄉間的數字未有統計在內，中小企業特別是零售店舖和餐飲業大面積倒閉，繼續維持開業的也在苦苦支撐，可謂百業待興。而政府採取減稅和緩交社保醫保的政策，不可能繼續維持，今年要補交稅費等開支，對經營者來說將會是百上加斤。
今年經濟可以說是內外交困，政府工作報告提出的赤字率控制在3%，比去年的2.8%只是稍微增加，安排地方政府專項債券3.8萬億元，只略高於去年的3.65萬億元，在沒有大幅增加經費來源的情况下，將經濟增長目標設在5%，是貫徹中央「穩字當頭、穩中求進」的大原則，如何做到，成為萬眾期待。
政府工作報告提出，把恢復和擴大消費擺在優先地位，穩定大宗消費。大宗消費品主要是依靠樓房和汽車銷售，房地產業本來已經爆煲，3年疫情更加成為壓垮的最後一根稻草。在缺乏剛需的情况下如何振興，市場需要更清晰的信號。
今年政府工作報告對於來年經濟發展的具體規劃，雖然着墨不多，可能是新舊交替的原因，而今年要達到增長5%的目標，國際機構都有信心，然而，各種不利經濟發展的因素令消費者和投資者信心不足，而各種有利因素則未見中央部門詳細介紹，具體刺激經濟措施也沒有「隆重推出」，這些都有待新一屆政府及早交代。
■ Glossary 生字 /
outgoing : leaving the position of responsibility mentioned
tenure : the period of time when sb holds an important job, especially a political one; the act of holding an important job