【明報專訊】Recent months saw a series of abortive tenders involving several large-scale land development projects in Hong Kong. As tenders for it were opened yesterday (1 March), a commercial site on Sai Yee Street in Mong Kok has avoided the same fate. Still, the winning bid was about 16% beneath the lower limit of market valuation.
With a gross floor area of more than 1.52 million square feet, the Sai Yee Street commercial site is a premium lot. The winning bidder will be responsible for the construction of pedestrian connections to nearby buildings, public parking lots, as well as government and social welfare facilities. The government received three bids before the cut-off date last week. In terms of the number of tenders, things were in line with expectations. At one point last year, the site was valued as high as $20 billion. In response to the recent concatenation of abortive land tenders, market observers had lowered the valuation of the site before the tender closed last week to between $5.6 billion and $11 billion, or a floor area price of about $3,700 to $7,200 per square foot.
The government opened the tenders yesterday, and the winning bid was $4.729 billion. This translates into a floor area price of $3,103 per square foot, or about 16% below the lower limit of market valuation. The authorities had repeatedly stated that they were not in a rush to sell land simply because of a budget deficit, and would "stand firm" over the reserve prices in land sales. The bargain the developer struck this time will inevitably arouse controversy. However, with the circumstances so unfavourable, it would be far from ideal for the government to stick to the reserve prices in return for failed tenders. To a certain degree, frequent abortive bids will affect external confidence in Hong Kong's recovery, and even the stability and continuity of land supply.
Last week the Development Bureau announced a land sale plan for the new financial year, including 12 residential sites, 3 commercial sites and 3 industrial sites. According to the authorities, together with schemes such as railway property developments and Urban Renewal Authority projects, an estimated number of over 20,000 units can be built from the potential land supply for the whole year. The figure is a new high in five budget years. However, if land tenders are aborted so frequently in the next financial year, the actual supply might be far lower than the authorities' expectation.
Of course, the property market has shown signs of recovery, and the bidding landscape for residential land is expected to improve in the second half of the year. However, it is believed that commercial land will still face greater pressure. In the second half of last year, the Tai Lam residential site at Tuen Mun and the commercial/residential land at Kai Tak were sold at low prices, which made developers think that there would be more opportunities to snap up a bargain. Now that the Mong Kok commercial site has been sold at a bargain price again, it cannot be ruled out that developers are more inclined to submit lower bids in the short term to see if there is another chance to win a land site at a low price.
Hong Kong's economic recovery has just begun. The government must seize the time to plan for the future. Many development opportunities might be lost if the government waits for a booming market to launch large-scale commercial site sales. While the government inevitably needs to consider market conditions when setting the reserve prices for land sales, it must never sell land cheaply without good reasons. As developers tend to be conservative and prudent when placing their bids at this stage, the authorities can try reducing some sales conditions that bring uncertainties or risks to investors when inviting tenders. As for some large-scale new development area projects, the authorities can consider the actual situation and divide these projects into multiple items. This will reduce the investment risks of potential bidders and their difficulties in securing loans or financing, thus reducing the likelihood of abortive bids.
明報社評 2023.03.02：商業靚地低價批出 惜售難不惜售也難
本港近月先後有多個大型土地發展項目流標，昨天開標的旺角洗衣街商業地，避過流標命運，但中標價比市場估值下限還要低約16%。
洗衣街商業地可建樓面逾152萬平方呎，屬於優質黃金地皮，中標者須負責興建連接附近建築物的行人道路系統及公眾停車場，亦須興建政府社福設施。政府上周截標，合共收到3份標書，論標書數目算是符合預期。有關地皮去年估值一度高達200億元，因應市場近期接連有地皮流標，上周截標前，市場人士已將估值下調到56億至110億元，即每呎樓面地價約為3700至7200元。
政府昨天開標，中標價47.29億元，每呎樓面地價3103元，比市場估值下限低約16%。當局之前一再表示，不會因為財赤而心急賣地，對賣地底價「有所堅持」。今次發展商筍價「執平貨」，難免惹來議論，然而形勢比人強，對政府而言，繼續企硬底價不惜流標，似乎也不是辦法。流標頻頻，多少會影響外界對香港復蘇的信心，甚至影響到土地供應的穩定及持續性。
發展局上周公布新年度賣地計劃，包括12幅住宅用地、3幅商業地及3幅工業地。當局表示，連同鐵路物業發展及市建局等項目，預計全年的潛在土地供應，可興建逾2萬個單位，屬近5個年度新高，但如果流標情况在下年度繼續頻頻出現，實際供應量便有可能遠少於當局預期。
當然，樓市已有回暖迹象，住宅用地招標情况，下半年有望好轉，但商業地相信仍會面對較大壓力。去年下半年，屯門大欖住宅地皮及啟德商住地皮先後以低價成交，令發展商認為有更多機會「執平貨」；今次旺角商業地再以「筍價」批出，不排除發展商短期更傾向在入標時壓價，看看是否有機會再以低價投得土地。
香港經濟復蘇剛剛開始，政府必須把握時間謀劃未來，等到市道暢旺才推出大型商業地，可能已錯失不少發展機會。政府釐定賣地底價，無可避免要考慮市况，但絕對不能隨隨便便賤賣土地。因應現階段發展商入標傾向保守審慎，當局可以在招標時，設法減少一些對投資者帶來不明朗因素或風險的出售條件；一些大型新發展區項目，當局也可以視乎實際情况，分拆為多個項目，變相為潛在入標者降低投資風險，以及借貸融資方面的困難，從而減少流標的可能。
/ Glossary生字 /
concatenation：a series of things or events that are linked together
snap up (sth)：to buy or obtain sth quickly because it is cheap or you want it very much
prudent：sensible and careful when you make judgements and decisions; avoiding unnecessary risks