【明報專訊】The war between Russia and Ukraine has gone on for exactly one year. On the battlefields were scenes of terrible carnage, and behind the deadlock between the two armies, the Russia-US confrontation remains a tug-of-war. The West continues to step up its arms provision for the Ukrainian army and put in place waves of sanctions, but it has yet to bring Russia to heel.
In the early days of the war, Russian forces attacked like a hot knife through butter. Many analysts believed that Ukraine's defeat would only be a matter of time. However, the situation has continued to unfold in unexpected ways. Not only has the Russian army failed to overthrow the pro-Western government in Kyiv, but its poor performance shattered all expectations. The Ukrainian army managed to hold its ground. Then, with the huge amount of weapons, intelligence and other support from the West, the Ukrainian army recovered nearly half of its lost territory before winter.
To make up for the loss of frontline troops, Vladimir Putin has trained more than 100,000 new conscripts. As for Ukraine, Europe and the US have promised it even more weapons, including about 100 tanks. Spring battles are imminent.
The Russo-Ukrainian War marks a head-on confrontation of Russia against the US and the West. On this silent battlefront, with sanctions, energy warfare, and containment ruthlessly employed, the developments have also gone against many people's expectations. When the US announced last year that it would kick Russian banks out of the SWIFT international settlement system and block Russian oil exports, many believed the Russian economy would collapse. However, Russia has not collapsed one year on and is still earning substantial revenues from oil. In Europe, after Russian oil and gas supplies were slashed, many people worried about an acute energy shortage in Western Europe during winter. However, thanks to the relatively warm weather and the fact that the door to Russian energy has not actually been firmly shut, the energy supply and economic situation in Europe were not too bad in the past winter.
If NATO is involved to the point that leads Ukraine close to victory, Russia is more likely to use nuclear weapons, or it may lead to a direct confrontation between NATO and Russian forces. This is a situation America and Europe do not want to see. On the other hand, if the Russian army makes an actual breakthrough, the US must decide between saving or abandoning the Kyiv administration. Choosing the former means risking a war with Russia, and the latter will repeat the political fiasco of the Afghan retreat two years ago.
For Washington, by wearing down Russia's power and strengthening US control over Europe, the stalemate of battles between Russia and Ukraine is a strategic win. Under so many plans, pushes and pulls, one of the possible developments in the Russo-Ukrainian War is a temporary ceasefire between two drained and distressed armies.
Recently, China has put forward a Russo-Ukrainian "peace proposal". Yet for the US, China's mediating the conflict may change the current situation that advantages the US. Washington's threat to publicise intelligence on "Chinese support for Russia" suggests somewhat its intention to wreck the arbitration by Beijing as a neutral player.
Although the public of the West generally sees an enemy in Russia, around 70% of people in Turkey and India regard it as a strategic partner. The West's influence over the world is waning, and it is unable to persuade non-Western countries onto its side. From this perspective, the "post-Western" world order is indeed taking shape.
明報社評2023.02.24：俄烏陷入長期消耗戰 中方斡旋美施計離間
俄烏戰事滿一年，戰場上生靈塗炭，兩軍陷入膠着狀態，背後的俄美對抗依然拉鋸，西方不斷加碼為烏軍提供武器，制裁攻勢更是一浪接一浪，惟未能扳倒俄國。
開戰初期，俄軍勢如破竹，很多分析都認為，烏克蘭戰敗只是時間問題，未料局勢發展不斷出人意料，俄軍不僅未能推翻親西方的基輔政府，表現之不濟，更令人大跌眼鏡。烏軍成功穩住陣腳，之後更獲西方提供大量武器、情報等支援，入冬前收復了近半失地。
為了填補前線兵源損失，普京徵召10多萬新兵並加以訓練，至於烏克蘭則得到歐美承諾提供更多武器，包括約百架坦克，春季戰事一觸即發。
俄烏戰爭標誌俄國與美國西方正面對抗，這是一條不見硝煙的戰線，制裁戰、能源戰、圍堵戰招招兇狠，形勢發展同樣出乎很多人意料。當美國去年宣布將俄羅斯銀行踢出SWIFT國際結算系統、封殺俄國石油出口時，不少人認為俄國經濟將崩潰，然而一年過去，俄國並未崩倒，石油收入依然豐厚。歐洲方面，俄羅斯油氣供應大減後，不少人擔心入冬後西歐爆發能源荒，然而受惠於相對暖和天氣，加上輸入俄國能源之門實際並無緊緊關上，這個冬季，歐洲能源供應和經濟情况尚算可以。
如果北約介入到一個地步，令烏克蘭接近勝利，俄羅斯動用核武機會也會大增，亦有可能演變成北約與俄軍正面衝突，這是美歐都不想見到的局面；另一邊廂，如果俄軍攻勢真的取得重大進展，美國亦要在守住或捨棄基輔政權之間二擇一，前者有跟俄國開戰風險，後者將重演前年撤出阿富汗的政治災難。
對華府而言，俄烏戰事膠着，消耗俄國力量，同時令美國得以強化對歐洲的控制，已屬戰略勝利。各種盤算和力量拉扯下，俄烏戰爭其中一個可能發展，是兩軍最後打到又累又殘，進入暫時休戰狀態。
最近中國提出俄烏「和平計劃」，惟對美方而言，中方介入斡旋，有可能影響現時有利美方的局面。華府近日揚言要揭露「中方支援俄國」情報，頗有破壞北京以中立姿態斡旋之意。
儘管西方民眾普遍視俄為敵，但土耳其和印度卻有約七成人視俄為戰略合作伙伴。西方在世界的影響力減退，無法說服非西方國家站在同一陣線，從這一角度而言，「後西方」世界秩序，確在形成之中。
■Glossary
生字
carnage : the violent killing of a large number of people
like a hot knife through butter : easily; without meeting any difficulty
shatter : to destroy sth completely, especially sb's feelings, hopes or beliefs; to be destroyed in this way