【明報專訊】In their first budget of the post-pandemic era, the authorities have proposed using financial instruments such as issuing bonds to "better manage cash flow". This marks an important change in their financial management mindset, as it implies that bond issuance will become a concurrent keystone of the SAR's financial structure. If the authorities can maintain strong fiscal reserves, issuing bonds improves the government's cash flow and helps it in drawing up more long-term development plans. Still, filling deficits customarily by issuing bonds will be unwholesome.
As Hong Kong emerges from the adversity of the pandemic, its economy needs consolidation, and its people need recuperation. Everyone is surely most concerned about what kind of measures will be in the budget to relieve people's hardships and boost the economy. Recently, government officials repeatedly stated that the government has accumulated a huge fiscal deficit over the past three years and its fiscal reserves have declined. Its fiscal policy will shift from "relatively loose" to "moderately loose"; inevitably, it will have to explore new sources of revenue and cut spending, they said. Judging from the content of the new budget, the so-called "moderately loose" fiscal policy basically means scaling down sweetener handouts but sticking to a deficit budget. This is to maintain a certain level of relief and avoid seriously affecting people's livelihoods and economic recovery.
Financial Secretary Paul Chan said that more than 80% of the resources involved in the measures of this budget will be spent on citizens and small and medium enterprises. However, the public often feels it differently. For many, the likes of a salaries tax reduction of $6000 at most and a rates concession for two quarters are a drop in the bucket.
In terms of planning for the future, the new budget proposed that the city should actively align with national development strategies, promote exchanges in the Greater Bay Area, step up efforts to establish Hong Kong as a green technology and financial centre and so on. However, there are few specific details. As for innovation and technology development, the highlights are more vivid. The government will set aside $3 billion to promote fundamental research in cutting-edge technology fields such as artificial intelligence and quantum technology. This will include setting up an Artificial Intelligence Supercomputing Centre and a Microelectronics Research and Development Institute. If implemented well, the plans will help Hong Kong become an international innovation and technology centre and promote the industrial diversity of its economy.
One of the impressions the new budget gives is that the authorities are looking everywhere for cash to improve the short-term fiscal situation. One of their measures is charging the Jockey Club an additional betting duty of $2.4 billion per year. The government also mentioned bond issuance. As the budget has proposed, starting from the new financial year, it will issue green bonds and infrastructure bonds of $65 billion in total annually for the next five years.
The SAR government always has a low debt level. Its outstanding debts are only equal to 4% of GDP, far lower than most of the other advanced economies. It is not a problem issuing bonds suitably to help start major infrastructure projects earlier. The key is, the authorities must avoid being spendthrift and ignore cost-effectiveness as they become comfortably off.
With an ageing population in Hong Kong, medical and social welfare expenditures will only rise in the long run, and the government's financial burden will become increasingly heavy. It is time to put public finances and tax structure reforms on the agenda. However, this topic is glossed over in the budget, which only says that we must first clearly consider the policy objectives of new taxes and let society have a full discussion first. The reforms of the tax structure affect all sides of society. A lengthy discussion is of course necessary. For this reason, the related discussions should start as soon as possible.
明報社評2023.02.23：發債謀未來非「填氹」政府切戒有錢亂花
今次是後抗疫時期首份財政預算案，當局提出利用發債等財務工具，「更好管理現金流」，是理財思路上的重要改變，意味發債將成為特區財政結構一個恒常重要部分，倘若當局能夠維持雄厚的財政儲備，發債可以令政府資金周轉更寬裕，有助謀劃更多長遠發展大計，但如果習慣靠發債填赤字缺口，就不是健康現象。
香港走出「疫」境，經濟需要固本培元，民生需要休養生息，各界最關心當然是預算案有何紓困及提振市道措施。官員近期一再表示，過去3年政府累積龐大財赤，財政儲備下降，財政政策將由之前「相當寬鬆」轉向「中間偏鬆」，開源節流無可避免。觀乎新一份預算案內容，所謂「中間偏鬆」，大抵就是縮減派糖規模，但仍維持赤字預算，保持一定紓困力度，以免嚴重影響民生及經濟復蘇。
財政司長陳茂波表示，預算案措施所涉及的資源，超過八成用在市民和中小企身上，不過公眾有何感受，往往是另一回事。對不少市民而言，薪俸稅寬減上限降至6000元，差餉寬減兩季等，不過是杯水車薪。
謀劃未來方面，新一份預算案提出積極對接國家發展戰略，推動大灣區交流、加緊推動香港成為綠色科技金融中心等，惟未見太多具體細節。有關創科發展的部分，亮點則相對突出，政府將預留30億元，推動人工智能、量子科技等前沿科技領域的基礎研究，包括建立人工智能超算中心及微電子研發院。有關計劃若能好好落實，有助香港成為國際創科中心，促進經濟產業多元化。
新一份預算案予人的其中一個觀感，是當局設法「撲水」，改善短期財政狀况，向馬會每年額外徵收24億元博彩稅，是其中一項措施。另外，政府亦提到發債。預算案提出，由新財年開始，未來5年，政府每年都會發行合計650億元的綠色債券及基礎建設債券。
特區政府債務水平向來很低，未償還債項只相當於GDP的4%，遠低於大部分先進經濟體，適度發債支援大型基建項目早日上馬，並無問題，關鍵是當局絕對不能因為手頭變得寬裕，便有錢亂花，做事不問成本效益。
香港人口老化，醫療社福開支長遠有增無減，政府財政負擔將愈來愈重。公共財政和稅收結構改革，是時候提上議事日程，然而今次預算案只是輕描淡寫帶過，僅表示要先清楚考慮新稅種的政策目標，以及先讓社會充分討論。稅收結構改革牽動各方，當然需要從長計議，正因如此，相關討論更應該盡早展開。
■/ Glossary 生字 /
recuperation : the act or process of getting back your health, strength or energy after being ill, tired, injured, etc.
comfortably off : having enough money to buy what you want without worrying too much about the cost
gloss over (sth) : to avoid talking about sth unpleasant or embarrassing by not dealing with it in detail