【明報專訊】A string of abortive land auctions has hit the government recently, and sparked a lot of discussion. Some have even linked the issue to the Hong Kong National Security Law.
Last year, due to a host of factors such as the local pandemic situation, rising interest rates, the wave of emigration, as well as the mainland's border closure and economic slowdown, Hong Kong's property market performed poorly. The property price index compiled by the Rating and Valuation Department fell by over 15% over the entire year, ending a rising trend that had continued for 13 years.
Following the restoration of normal travel between Hong Kong and the mainland, as well as both regions' full reopening and return to normal, there have been signs of a recovery in second-hand property prices. But land auctions have shown a different picture, with a string of three abortive auctions involving land sites and large-scale development projects, namely a Stanley luxury home site, an Urban Renewal Authority Kwun Tong Town Centre commercial building redevelopment project and Phase 1 of the MTR's development project in Siu Ho Wan. Some are concerned about whether developers are pessimistic about the property market, and even the economic prospects. Further, some claim that the government's inclusion of Hong Kong National Security Law clauses in land sales terms and short-term lease agreements last November might have affected developers' willingness to place a bid.
The widespread discussion following this series of abortive land sales reflects some political conditions in society. The so-called "National Security Law effect" even smacks of political exaggeration, which is speculative and lacks evidence. This week, a small-to-medium-sized residential land site at Yau Kom Tau, Tsuen Wan was won by the Kerry Group with a bid of nearly $1.44 billion, which was close to the upper limit of market valuation. The land site is not close to any railway station, and the successful bidder must build government facilities. Still, the Lands Department had received ten tenders, making the site the one with the best reception over the past seven months. Although it is not a large-scale project, it will somewhat lift the market mood.
In the latter half of last year, multiple land sites were sold at low prices, such as a residential site in Tuen Mun's Tai Lam and a commercial/residential site in Kai Tak. It has convinced developers that they are more likely to pick up a bargain from land sales. On the other hand, since Hong Kong and the mainland are reopening and returning to normal, the government has a more positive outlook, and stresses that its land will not go for a song. As the two sides enter a tug of war over land prices, there will be more failed land sales.
Land premium is one of the main sources of the SAR government's fiscal revenue. In the year 2021/22, for example, land premium revenue accounted for about 20% of the government's annual revenue. The high proportion was second only to profits tax (about 23%). However, land premium revenue is highly dependent on the economic environment and the property market. Relying too much on land sales and land-related income only defeats the notion of ensuring financial stability.
In recent years, the SAR government has stated that it would step up land creation and housing construction. Large-scale development projects such as the Northern Metropolis and the Kau Yi Chau Artificial Islands will be launched one after another. If the authorities keep their promise about land creation, the supply of "disposed sites" over the next ten years will reach 3,280 hectares, meaning that a structural, long-term change to the situation of demand outstripping supply in Hong Kong's property market may happen. Under the law of supply and demand, the land price frenzy should also recede, unlike before the pandemic.
The government claims that there is no high land price policy, so to strengthen its future fiscal revenue stability, it is time to gradually reform public finances and the government revenue structure to reduce their reliance on land-related revenue.
明報社評2023.02.17：政府賣地進帳不穩定 庫房收入結構要改革
政府賣地近期接連流標，引發不少議論，甚至扯上《港區國安法》。
去年本港樓市受本地疫情、息口向上、移民潮、內地封關經濟放緩等多重因素影響，表現低迷，差估署樓價指數全年累跌逾15%，連續13年升勢結束。
隨着香港與內地恢復通關、全面重開復常，近期二手樓價開始出現回升迹象，可是賣地情况卻是另一幅光景，接連有3幅地皮或大型發展項目流標，包括赤柱豪宅地皮、市建局觀塘市中心重建商廈項目，以及港鐵小蠔灣第1期發展項目，有人關注發展商是否看淡樓市以至經濟前景，有人更稱，政府去年11月在賣地及短期租約條款內，加入港區國安法適用條文，可能影響發展商投標意欲，云云。
賣地流標頻頻，各界議論紛紛，折射了社會上一些政治情况，所謂「國安法影響」，更有政治渲染之嫌，捕風捉影，缺乏憑據。荃灣油柑頭一幅中小型住宅官地，本周由嘉里集團以近14.4億元中標，接近市場估值上限，有關地皮不近鐵路站，中標者須興建政府設施，地政總署仍收到10份標書，是近7個月以來反應最佳的地皮，雖然不算大型項目，但多少有助吹散一下淡風。
去年下半年，先後有屯門大欖住宅地皮及啟德商住地皮等以低價成交，令發展商認為有更多機會「執死雞」低價購地，然而另一邊廂，隨着香港內地重開復常，政府傾向看好前景，強調不會賤價賣地，雙方就地價展開拉鋸，流標情况自然亦相應增加。
地價是特區政府財政收入主要來源之一，以2021/22年度為例，地價收入便佔政府全年收入約兩成，比重之高僅次於利得稅（約23%），然而地價收入很受經濟環境及樓市影響，太過依賴賣地及土地相關收入，對確保財政穩定有害無益。
近年特區政府表示要加緊造地建屋，北部都會區、交椅洲人工島等大型發展項目將陸續展開，倘若當局造地「不走數」，未來10年「熟地」供應預計可達3280公頃，意味香港樓市供不應求局面，屆時有機會出現結構性的長遠改變，地價在供求定律下，亦不應再像疫前那麼瘋狂。
政府聲稱沒有高地價政策，為了加強未來財政收入的穩定性，現在就應該逐步改革公共財政及庫房收入結構，減少依賴土地相關收入。
■Glossary
生字
abortive : not successful; failed
smack of (sth) : to seem to contain or involve a particular unpleasant quality
outstrip (sth) : to become larger, more important, etc. than sb/sth